Liverpool vs Everton Prediction & Preview — 20 September 2025

The Merseyside derby always carries more than three points—local pride, momentum, and bragging rights are all on the line. This season, Liverpool enter the fixture following a summer of radical rebuilding under Arne Slot, while Everton are aiming for stability under David Moyes amid significant squad turnover.

Transfer Business & Squad Changes

Liverpool

Liverpool’s summer transfer window was one of the most aggressive in recent years. Key arrivals include:

• Alexander Isak arriving from Newcastle United for around £125 million — a statement signing to lead the front line.

• Florian Wirtz, acquired from Bayer Leverkusen for a record fee, expected to add creativity and attacking impetus.

• Other major signings: Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez, Giorgi Mamardashvili, Giovanni Leoni.

Departures have also been substantial, with the likes of Darwin Núñez, Luis Díaz, Caoimhín Kelleher, and others moving on.

The scale of investment suggests Liverpool are aiming not just to defend their recent form, but to push on decisively. One concern might be chemistry: so many new faces always require time for cohesion.

Everton

Everton also made considerable changes. Their transfer business includes:

• Incoming players such as Charly Alcaraz (Flamengo), Thierno Barry (Villarreal), Adam Aznou (from Bayern Munich), Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Jack Grealish (on loan from Manchester City), among others.

• Departures as well: notably, the exit of Dominic Calvert-Lewin created a gap in the forward options which Everton hope Barry and others can help fill.

Everton’s objective seems clearer: stabilise defensively, build gradually, and avoid repeating last season’s inconsistencies.

Key Players to Watch

• From Liverpool: Isak (goals, hold-up play), Wirtz (creativity, chance-creation), and the full-backs like Frimpong and Milos Kerkez who can stretch play.

• From Everton: Thierno Barry (arrival with expectations in front of goal), Jack Grealish (if fit, ability to unlock defences), and their defensive structure under Moyes will be tested.

Tactical Considerations

Liverpool under Slot will likely try to dominate possession, press high, use the wings, and deploy their multiple attacking options. Everton may set up more cautiously: absorb pressure, look to counter, exploit transitions, especially via Grealish or quick forward movements from Barry.

Set pieces may also be significant — both sides have aerial threats and opportunities in dead-ball situations. Anfield will demand intensity from Everton early, and the crowd could play a part: Liverpool will want to make a statement at home.

Prediction

Given the strength of Liverpool’s summer signings and their firepower, they are favourites. However, Everton are dangerous—particularly if they can frustrate Liverpool and hit them on the break.

• Likely result: Liverpool 2-1 Everton

• Scoreline tip: Liverpool win 2-1

• Chance of draw: Moderate, if Everton stay compact and clinical

Analytics models support a strong Liverpool probability: one recent simulation gives Liverpool ~71.3% chance of victory, Everton ~11.5%, draw ~17.2%.

Final Thoughts

This derby is a test of how quickly Liverpool’s new stars can shine together, and of Everton’s ability to rise to big occasions despite being on the back foot regarding spending power and squad depth. If Liverpool bring the intensity from the first whistle, they should edge this one. But Everton will believe they can spoil the party.

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