Marseille vs Ajax – Prediction & Betting Tips (30/09/2025)

On Tuesday, 30 September 2025, Olympique de Marseille will host Ajax at the Stade Vélodrome in a crucial UEFA Champions League group-stage match. Both sides are under pressure — Marseille to uphold their home form, and Ajax to recover from mixed results.

Current Form & Context

• Marseille have shown resilience at home, being unbeaten in their last several matches at Stade Vélodrome across all competitions. 

• However, they have had ups and downs in Ligue 1, dropping points away and showing some inconsistency. 

• Ajax are struggling somewhat in recent fixtures, especially away from home. Their away performance in Europe has been patchy, conceding in many of these matches. 

Team News & Key Issues

• Marseille may have some injury concerns. Igor Paixão is listed with a muscle injury. 

• Ajax have a few players doubtful or out. For example, Branco van den Boomen is injured, with others also being assessed ahead of kickoff.

Tactical Considerations

• Marseille will likely try to dominate possession, use width, and press high especially in the midfield and early phases. With their stable home record, they’ll feel confident pushing forward.

• Ajax, in turn, may play more cautiously, seeking to exploit counter-attacks and set pieces. Their defensive frailties in away games could be exposed, especially under pressure.

• Given Ajax’s recent history of conceding away and Marseille’s ability to find goals at home, there’s potential for this game to be open at times.

Prediction & Value Picks

• Main Prediction: Marseille to win narrowly

• Alternate / Value Bets:

  • Both Teams to Score (Yes)

  • Over 2.5 goals

  • Marseille +0.5 Asian Handicap

Given Marseille’s home strength and Ajax’s away vulnerabilities, Marseille have the edge — but Ajax’s quality means they may avoid a heavy loss.

For the best odds and most complete betting markets for Marseille vs Ajax, check out Sky247 NG — get value and up-to-date lines ahead of kick-off.