Barcelona vs Villarreal Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | La Liga – 28 February 2026

Match Overview: Barça Eye Season Series Sweep

When Barcelona host Villarreal at the Spotify Camp Nou on Saturday afternoon, Hansi Flick's side will be targeting a season series sweep against the Yellow Submarine. The Blaugrana won the reverse fixture convincingly 2–0 at La Cerámica in December, with goals from Raphinha and Lamine Yamal securing three crucial points in the thick of the title race. Now, with Barcelona sitting first in La Liga and Villarreal fourth, this promises to be a high-quality encounter between two of Spain's most entertaining teams.

Barcelona arrive at this fixture in blistering form, having just dismantled Levante 3–0 in their last La Liga outing on February 22. Lamine Yamal — already with 12 goals and 8 assists in the league — continues to torment opposition defences, while Ferran Torres leads the line with 12 league goals. The return of Gavi from his lengthy knee injury adds another creative dimension to Flick's already star-studded midfield, and the mood around Camp Nou is one of genuine title-winning belief.

For Villarreal, this is a chance to make a statement. Marcelino García Toral's side sit fourth in the table — a remarkable achievement given their injury crisis — and have been one of the league's most resilient and well-organized outfits all season. Alberto Moleiro, the 22-year-old Spanish winger signed from Las Palmas last summer, has been their standout performer with 8 goals and 3 assists, while Georges Mikautadze (7 goals) provides a clinical edge in attack. However, the absence of Gerard Moreno — ruled out with yet another recurring muscle injury — is a huge blow to Villarreal's hopes of pulling off an upset at the Camp Nou.

La Liga Table (Before MD26)

Barcelona sit top of La Liga with 59 points from 25 games, holding a slender one-point advantage over second-placed Real Madrid. The title race could not be tighter, with every dropped point potentially proving decisive. Villarreal's fourth-place position is a testament to Marcelino's tactical nous and the squad's resilience in the face of a crippling injury crisis. The Yellow Submarine are comfortably in the Champions League qualifying spots and have been one of the surprises of the season.

Recent Form Guide

🔵🔴 FC Barcelona – Last 5 La Liga Matches

Barcelona's domestic form has been excellent overall, with just two defeats in their last five league outings. The most recent was a 0–3 shock loss at Rayo Vallecano on February 15 — a result that handed Real Madrid a golden opportunity to close the gap at the top. Before that, however, Barça had been imperious: a 3–0 win over Levante, a 1–1 draw at Girona (22 Feb), victories over Espanyol and Real Sociedad, and comprehensive displays in both legs of the Copa del Rey semi-final against Atlético Madrid (aggregate 4–0). Hansi Flick's attacking philosophy has seen Barcelona score 63 goals in 25 league games — the most in La Liga — and they remain the division's entertainers.

🟡🔵 Villarreal CF – Last 5 La Liga Matches

Villarreal arrive at the Camp Nou in strong form, having won four of their last five competitive matches across all competitions. Their most recent La Liga fixture was a hard-fought 2–1 victory over Valencia on February 22, with Alberto Moleiro delivering a goal and an assist to help maintain their top-four challenge. Before that, Villarreal beat Levante 2–0, thrashed Deportivo Alavés 3–1, and secured a crucial 2–0 Champions League victory over Villarreal — though they also suffered a disappointing 0–1 defeat at Getafe. Marcelino has his side playing disciplined, organized football, though the absence of Gerard Moreno (recurring muscle injury) continues to test the squad's depth.

Team News & Injury Report

🔵🔴 FC Barcelona – Injury & Availability List

Barcelona's injury list has been significantly reduced in recent weeks. Gavi is the big news: the Spanish international has been sidelined since September 2025 following knee surgery to treat a medial meniscus injury, but he is now closing in on a return and should be back on the field before the end of February. His return could not come at a better time, with Barcelona facing a crucial Copa del Rey semi-final second leg against Atlético Madrid on March 3 (already leading 4–0 on aggregate). Andreas Christensen is the only long-term absentee, having suffered a partial tear of the ACL in his left knee during a training session in December. The Danish centre-back is expected to miss the rest of the season and is undergoing rehabilitation. Young left-back Jofre Torrents suffered a syndesmosis ankle injury while playing for Barcelona Atlètic and will be sidelined for 10–12 weeks. All of Barça's key attacking players — Lamine Yamal, Ferran Torres, Raphinha, Pedri, Frenkie de Jong — are fit and available.

🟡🔵 Villarreal CF – Injury & Availability List

Villarreal's injury crisis continues to test the squad's depth. Gerard Moreno — the club captain and Villarreal's most important striker — has been ruled out for several weeks with a recurring muscle injury. Marcelino confirmed: "Gerard will be out, for sure." Moreno has struggled with muscular ailments throughout his career, and this latest setback removes him from the team's dynamic just when he was in excellent form. The striker had scored four goals in four consecutive matchdays before being forced to the sidelines. Dani Parejo, Villarreal's veteran midfield maestro, is also a doubt after picking up a light muscle problem. Marcelino said they would assess him before the game but indicated Parejo might miss this fixture and return for the following match. The good news is that Alberto Moleiro — Villarreal's top scorer with 8 league goals and 3 assists — has recovered from a fever and is available after missing training earlier in the week.

Predicted Lineups

Hansi Flick is likely to field his strongest available XI for this crucial La Liga fixture. Lamine Yamal and Raphinha provide width and creativity from the flanks, while Ferran Torres leads the line with his impressive 12-goal tally this season. The key decision is whether to start Gavi in the No.10 role if he is passed fit, or to continue with Pedri, who has been excellent since returning from his own injury. The Frenkie de Jong and Marc Casadó partnership in midfield has been one of the revelations of Flick's tenure, offering both ball progression and defensive solidity.

For Villarreal, Marcelino must find a way to replace Gerard Moreno's goals and leadership. Georges Mikautadze will almost certainly start as the primary striker, supported by Ayoze Pérez in a 4-4-2 formation designed to be compact and difficult to break down. Alberto Moleiro — Villarreal's most dangerous attacker with 8 goals and 3 assists — will operate from the left wing, cutting inside onto his stronger right foot. Nicolas Pépé provides experience and pace down the right flank. Without Moreno, Villarreal will need to be clinical with the limited chances they create.

Head-to-Head Record

Barcelona have dominated this fixture historically, winning 24 of the 31 recent competitive meetings between the two sides. Villarreal's three victories have come at memorable moments — including a famous 4–3 win at Camp Nou in May 2025 and a 2–0 victory in December 2024 — but the overall H2H record heavily favours the Blaugrana. The reverse fixture this season ended 2–0 in Barcelona's favour at La Cerámica on December 21, 2025, with Raphinha and Lamine Yamal finding the net. Barcelona have not lost at home to Villarreal in La Liga since 2008, a remarkable run that underlines the difficulty of the task facing Marcelino's side.

Key Battles to Watch

Tactical Analysis & Match Verdict

Barcelona's tactical approach under Hansi Flick is built around positional superiority, rapid ball circulation, and exploiting wide areas with the pace of Yamal and Raphinha. The Camp Nou crowd will expect Barcelona to dominate possession and pin Villarreal back in their own half for long periods. The key for Barça is avoiding complacency after their comfortable 2–0 victory in the reverse fixture — Villarreal are a significantly better side than that scoreline suggests, and Marcelino has proven repeatedly this season that his team can compete with the elite.

Villarreal will set up in a compact 4-4-2 block, looking to absorb Barcelona's pressure and hit them on the counter through Moleiro's pace and Mikautadze's movement. Without Gerard Moreno, Villarreal lose their primary attacking reference and the player who has been most effective at linking midfield to attack. Ayoze Pérez and Mikautadze must work in tandem to stretch Barcelona's defence and create space for Moleiro and Pépé to exploit.

The absence of Moreno is a huge blow, but Villarreal have shown resilience all season in the face of adversity. If they can frustrate Barcelona in the first half and keep the scoreline tight, they have the quality to nick a goal on the break. However, the statistical reality is that Barcelona have scored 63 goals in 25 league games — an average of 2.5 goals per match — and have been ruthless at home. Villarreal will need a near-perfect defensive performance and clinical finishing to come away with anything from the Camp Nou.

Our verdict: Barcelona win 3–1. The quality differential is too large, particularly without Gerard Moreno in Villarreal's XI. Barcelona should control this game, create multiple high-quality chances, and secure a comfortable victory that extends their lead at the top of La Liga. Villarreal will score — Moleiro and Mikautadze have the quality to threaten any defence — but Barcelona's attacking firepower should prove decisive.

Our Expert Prediction

We predict Barcelona 3–1 Villarreal. Home advantage, superior attacking quality and the absence of Gerard Moreno all heavily favour the Blaugrana. Barcelona's front three of Yamal, Raphinha and Ferran Torres should have enough quality to break down Villarreal's defence multiple times. Villarreal will score — they always find a way — but Barcelona's relentless attacking should secure a comfortable win. Over 2.5 goals at ~1.55 odds is excellent value, given both sides' attacking quality and Barcelona's home form.

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