Girona vs Barcelona Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | La Liga – 16 February 2026

Match Overview

Monday night's Catalan derby serves up one of the most mouth-watering fixtures on La Liga's February calendar. Girona FC welcome FC Barcelona to the Estadi Municipal de Montilivi for Matchday 24, with the table-topping Blaugrana desperate to maintain their one-point advantage over city rivals Real Madrid in a title race that could not be tighter.

Barcelona head into this game on the back of a gruelling midweek Copa del Rey semi-final first leg against Atlético Madrid, meaning rotation and fatigue could play a decisive role. Girona, meanwhile, sit in 12th and have been a shadow of the side that memorably ran Barça so close in recent seasons — a combination of a devastating injury crisis and defensive vulnerabilities has left Michel Sánchez's team in lower-half survival mode rather than challenging for continental football.

The reverse fixture back in October 2025 produced a gripping 2–1 Barcelona win at Montjuïc, with Ronald Araujo netting a dramatic 93rd-minute winner. This time, with the game at Girona's fortress, expect an intense and physical Catalan derby with no shortage of drama.

La Liga Standings (Before MD24)

Barcelona are the clear title favourites, sitting top of La Liga with a one-point lead over Real Madrid after 23 games. Girona, by stark contrast, have suffered 12 losses and currently sit 12th — a precipitous drop from their Champions League campaign last season and a reflection of the injury toll that has decimated Michel's squad throughout the 2025/26 campaign.

Recent Form Guide

Girona FC – Last 5 La Liga Results

Girona managed just one win in their past five La Liga outings, drawing at home to Getafe and away at Sevilla (1–1 on matchday 23), though a 2–0 home win over Espanyol showed flashes of their quality. The Catalans have conceded in every one of their last eight league matches and have kept only three clean sheets all season — a defensive fragility that will concern Michel ahead of hosting Hansi Flick's free-scoring attackers.

FC Barcelona – Last 5 La Liga Results

Barcelona have been near-unstoppable in La Liga since December, going undefeated over their last three months of league action. Their most recent La Liga outing before this match saw them brush aside Mallorca 3–0, and before the Girona clash they face Atlético in the Copa del Rey semis. Flick's men have scored at least two goals in 14 of their last 17 league games and lead La Liga in both goals scored (63) and goal difference (+40).

Team News & Injury Report

🔴 Girona FC – Injury Absentees

Girona are operating as a hospital ward. The highly publicised loan arrival of Marc-André ter Stegen from Barcelona ended in disaster after just two appearances — the German keeper underwent successful surgery on 7 February and will play no part on Monday. Crucially, his loan agreement included a clause preventing him from facing Barcelona anyway. Paulo Gazzaniga continues between the sticks. The absentees represent nearly half of Girona's first-team options, stripping Michel of key creative and defensive outlets. Vanat, their top striker, is a major doubt after a thigh setback.

🔵🔴 FC Barcelona – Injury Absentees

Hansi Flick faces a challenging selection headache coming off the Atlético Madrid Copa del Rey first leg on 12 February. Pedri is definitively out until at least the Levante fixture on February 22. Raphinha was kept back from the Atlético tie as a precaution but is hopeful to return for the Girona trip, his expected return date listed as 16 February. Marcus Rashford — signed on loan from Manchester United and now a key figure on the left flank — was also rested against Atlético and is in a similar return bracket. Gavi is tantalisingly close to making his comeback after his September knee surgery; the midfielder has been working with the ball in training and could potentially be called up, though Flick has insisted he will not rush the Spain international. Frenkie de Jong carries a minor groin strain and is considered doubtful.

Predicted Lineups (4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1)

Flick is likely to ring some changes after the midweek cup exertions, with Ferran Torres and Roony Bardghji offering fresh cover in the wide positions. The key question is whether Raphinha — potentially fresh after missing the Copa tie — slots straight back in on the left, and whether Flick's coaching staff clear Rashford to play. A cautious Flick might start with Fermín López in the No.10 role. One fascinating subplot: whether Girona dare field the returning Axel Witsel against his former collaborators in a midfield engine room that badly needs legs.

Head-to-Head Record

Over their 15 competitive meetings, Barcelona hold a commanding head-to-head edge with 10 victories. Girona's three wins are all the more remarkable for when they occurred — the 2023/24 La Liga season, when Girona shocked everyone by beating Barça 4–2 in both home and away fixtures on their way to a historic third-place finish. Since then, Barcelona have restored order, winning both clashes last season 4–1 and narrowly edging the October 2025 reverse derby 2–1 in a dramatic finish thanks to Araujo's injury-time header.

At Montilivi specifically, Girona have occasionally managed to spring surprises, but the current gulf in quality and form makes another Girona upset hard to envisage without significant help from the injury list.

Key Battles to Watch

Lamine Yamal vs. Manu Gutiérrez

Barcelona's teenage sensation has been in devastating form, and Girona's left-back slot has been one of their weaker positions all season with Álex Moreno sidelined. Gutiérrez will face a baptism of fire against the most exciting young winger in world football. If Yamal gets on the ball in space early, this match could be over quickly.

Yangel Herrera vs. Marc Casadó

Girona's most influential available midfielder against Barça's quietly excellent holding player. Herrera has the quality to disrupt Barcelona's rhythm in the centre if he can win the battle against Casadó and Eric García. It's the midfield fight that could define how much control Barcelona exercise.

Lewandowski vs. Blind / Reis

Robert Lewandowski continues to defy age and logic, leading La Liga's scoring charts. Against a Girona centre-back pairing of Daley Blind and David Reis — competent but not elite — the Pole will fancy his chances. The 37-year-old Blind can struggle against relentless, intelligent pressing, which is exactly how Flick has set Lewandowski up this season.

Tactical Analysis & Match Verdict

The numbers are starkly one-sided. Barcelona have scored 63 goals in 23 games and conceded only 23. Girona have scored 29 and shipped 42 — the reverse picture. The Blaugrana's high press and fluid front line, even with key names like Pedri absent, will cause serious difficulties for a Girona side that has conceded in all but three games this season.

Michel Sánchez knows this fixture as well as anyone and will certainly set up to be compact and physical, looking to nick a goal on the counter with whatever attacking options are available. With Vanat doubtful and Portu out for the season, Girona's attacking threat is severely blunted. Bryan Gil is likely to be their most dangerous outlet on the break.

Barcelona, however, cannot afford to take their foot off the gas. With Real Madrid breathing down their necks just one point behind at the summit, dropping three points here would relinquish top spot. Flick will demand a professional, assertive performance even if he rotates some faces following the Copa del Rey exertions earlier in the week.

The key risk for Barça is a sluggish start — physically fatigued from midweek — allowing Girona to grow in confidence on home soil. The reverse fixture saw Girona dominate for long spells despite the final scoreline. But with Raphinha and Rashford potentially returning to bolster the attack, Barcelona have too much quality to drop points against a depleted and struggling opponent. Expect goals — but expect Barcelona to see this out comfortably.

Our Prediction

We predict a 3–1 win for Barcelona. Girona will likely score — they always show fight on home soil — but Barcelona's firepower, tactical discipline under Flick, and superior squad depth should prove decisive. The gap in league position and quality is simply too wide for a Girona team ravaged by injuries to bridge on this occasion, particularly against a Barça side with genuine title-winning momentum.

Top Betting Tips for Girona vs Barcelona

Match Odds Summary