Real Betis vs Sevilla Prediction & Tips | El Gran Derbi – 1 Mar 2026

Match Overview: The Fiercest Rivalry in Andalusia

When Real Betis and Sevilla meet at the Estadio de La Cartuja on Sunday evening, they will contest the latest chapter of El Gran Derbi — The Great Derby — one of the fiercest, most passionate rivalries in European football. This is more than just a football match; it is a battle for the soul of Seville, a clash that divides families, workplaces and entire neighborhoods across Andalusia's capital city. The atmosphere will be electric, the stakes enormous, and the bragging rights priceless.

Real Betis arrive at this derby in exceptional form, sitting fifth in La Liga with 42 points from 25 games and riding a wave of momentum that has seen them win five consecutive league matches. Manuel Pellegrini's side have been one of the surprises of the season, challenging for a Champions League qualification spot while also progressing to the quarter-finals of the Europa Conference League. Cucho Hernández has been their talisman with 8 league goals, while Antony (6 goals, 4 assists) and Abde Ezzalzouli (5 goals) provide pace and creativity from the flanks. Los Verdiblancos are unbeaten in their last 12 La Liga meetings with Sevilla — a remarkable run that has shifted the power dynamic in this historic rivalry.

For Sevilla, this derby represents a chance to salvage pride from a deeply disappointing season. Los Nervionenses sit 12th with just 29 points from 25 matches, dangerously close to the relegation zone and facing their worst campaign in decades. Manager Matías Almeyda is under intense pressure after overseeing just two wins in 2026, and Sevilla's defensive record — 36 goals conceded in 25 matches — is the third-worst in La Liga. The one bright spot: Sevilla won the earlier derby this season, securing a 1–0 victory at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in November. If they can repeat that feat and complete the double, it would provide a desperately needed lifeline in their battle against relegation.

La Liga Table (Before MD26)

The gulf in quality between the two sides is stark. Betis sit fifth, chasing Champions League football and just six points off fourth-placed Atlético Madrid. Sevilla sit 12th, just five points above the relegation zone, and facing a relegation battle that would have been unthinkable just a few seasons ago. The contrasting fortunes of these two Andalusian giants make this derby all the more fascinating — and all the more important for both clubs' respective ambitions.

Recent Form Guide

🟢⚪ Real Betis – Last 5 La Liga Matches

Betis arrive at this derby in blistering form. Their most recent outing was a 2–2 draw at Rayo Vallecano on February 22, a result that ended their five-match winning streak but still extended their unbeaten run to eight league games. Before that draw, Betis had been imperious: victories over Leganés (3–2), Real Madrid (2–1 in a stunning upset at home), Mallorca (2–1), and Getafe (2–0). Pellegrini's side are scoring goals for fun — 41 in 25 matches — and have conceded just 27, the sixth-best defensive record in La Liga. The blend of attacking flair and defensive solidity has made Betis genuine contenders for European football.

🔴⚪ Sevilla – Last 5 La Liga Matches

Sevilla's form is deeply concerning. Their most recent fixture was a 1–0 defeat at home to Getafe on February 23 — a result that left Almeyda under immense pressure. Before that, Sevilla managed a 1–1 draw at home to Deportivo Alavés (with both Joan Jordán and Juanlu Sánchez sent off), lost 0–1 at Athletic Bilbao, secured a rare 2–1 victory over Real Sociedad, and drew 1–1 with Espanyol. Sevilla have won just twice in 2026 and have conceded 36 goals in 25 matches — the third-worst defensive record in La Liga. Los Nervionenses are in freefall, and this derby could define their season.

Team News & Injury Report

🟢⚪ Real Betis – Injury & Suspension List

Betis head into this derby with a significant injury crisis in midfield. Isco, Giovani Lo Celso and Sofyan Amrabat are all unavailable — a huge blow to Pellegrini's creative options. Isco required seven stitches after a bizarre collision with teammate Amrabat during their Europa League match against Utrecht in late November, and neither player has recovered in time for the derby. Lo Celso's undisclosed injury compounds the problem, stripping Betis of three key midfield playmakers. Reports on February 24 confirmed all three players remain out with their return expected to take several more weeks. Valentín Gómez is suspended after picking up his fifth yellow card, further depleting Betis' defensive options.

The positive news: Cédric Bakambu and Aitor Ruibal have both returned to full training after recovering from recent fitness issues. Pellegrini will rely heavily on Pablo Fornals, Nelson Deossa and Marc Roca to fill the creative void left by the injured trio.

🔴⚪ Sevilla – Injury & Suspension List

Sevilla's injury and suspension list reads like a litany of disaster. Manager Matías Almeyda is banned from the touchline, meaning he'll watch from the stands as his assistant takes charge. Tanguy Nianzou is suspended after picking up his fifth yellow card, while Joan Jordán serves a ban after being sent off in the 16th minute against Deportivo Alavés. The loss of Nianzou — one of Sevilla's most reliable defenders — is particularly damaging given the team's defensive fragility.

In the treatment room, Ruben Vargas (hamstring), Gabriel Suazo (muscle), Marcão (knee) and Oso remain sidelined. The Swiss winger Vargas has been out since late November and won't return in time for the derby. The good news: midfielder Djibril Sow has returned to fitness and is available for selection, while Lucien Agoumé has served his suspension and can return to the starting XI.

Predicted Lineups

Pellegrini faces the challenge of replacing Isco, Lo Celso and Amrabat in midfield. Pablo Fornals — the former West Ham playmaker — is expected to start in the No.10 role, with Nelson Deossa and Sergi Altimira providing support alongside Johnny Cardoso at the base. Up front, Cucho Hernández leads the line with 8 league goals, flanked by the pace and trickery of Antony and Abde Ezzalzouli. Without Gómez suspended, Natan partners Diego Llorente in central defence.

For Sevilla, Almeyda (watching from the stands) must navigate suspensions to Nianzou and Jordán. Albert Sambi Lokonga — on loan from Arsenal — is expected to start in central midfield alongside Saúl Ñíguez. Dodi Lukebakio has been Sevilla's standout performer with 11 La Liga goals and will be their primary attacking threat from the right wing. Isaac Romero leads the line, with Chidera Ejuke and Juanlu Sánchez providing width and creativity. The defensive pairing of Loïc Badé and Kike Salas must somehow contain Betis' attacking firepower.

El Gran Derbi Head-to-Head

The historical H2H record heavily favours Sevilla, who have won 66 of the 144 official competitive meetings between these two sides. However, recent history tells a very different story. Betis were unbeaten in 12 consecutive La Liga derbies against Sevilla before November's reverse fixture, a run that marked a dramatic shift in the balance of power in Seville. That streak included memorable Betis victories — most notably a 4–0 thrashing at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in March 2024 and a 2–1 win in November 2024.

Sevilla's 1–0 victory in the earlier derby this season broke that streak and gave Los Nervionenses genuine hope that they could challenge their city rivals once again. But Betis will be desperate to re-establish dominance and remind Sevilla — and the rest of Andalusia — who currently rules the roost in this historic rivalry.

Key Battles to Watch

Tactical Analysis & Match Verdict

Betis' tactical approach under Pellegrini is built around possession-based football, quick transitions and exploiting width with their pacey wingers. At the Estadio de La Cartuja, Los Verdiblancos will look to dominate the ball and pin Sevilla back in their own half. The key question is whether they can break down a Sevilla defence that, while statistically poor, will be set up to be compact and difficult to penetrate in a derby environment.

The absence of Isco, Lo Celso and Amrabat significantly impacts Betis' creative options, forcing Pellegrini to rely on Fornals and Deossa to provide the guile and vision needed to unlock Sevilla's low block. If Betis can establish territorial dominance in the first 30 minutes and score an early goal, Sevilla's fragile confidence could crumble.

Sevilla will set up in a compact 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1, looking to absorb pressure and hit Betis on the counter through Lukebakio's pace and Romero's movement. Almeyda knows Sevilla cannot go toe-to-toe with Betis in an open game and will prioritize defensive solidity. The problem: Sevilla have conceded 36 goals in 25 matches this season, and their defensive record suggests they will struggle to keep Betis at bay.

The suspensions to Nianzou and Jordán strip Sevilla of defensive leadership and midfield steel — two crucial elements in a high-intensity derby. With Almeyda banned from the touchline, Sevilla lack the tactical nous and in-game adjustments that could swing the match in their favour.

The emotional intensity of El Gran Derbi cannot be understated. This is a match where form goes out the window, where pride and passion trump league positions. Sevilla showed in November they can beat Betis when everything clicks. But the overwhelming evidence — Betis' superior form, home advantage (though La Cartuja is technically neutral, it favours Betis), and Sevilla's injury/suspension crisis — points to a Betis victory.

Our verdict: Real Betis win 2–1. Home advantage, superior form and Sevilla's defensive fragility make Betis favourites. Sevilla will score — Lukebakio is too dangerous to be kept quiet for 90 minutes — but Betis' attacking firepower should prove decisive. Expect a passionate, intense derby that Betis edge thanks to their quality in the final third.

Our Expert Prediction

We predict Real Betis 2–1 Sevilla. Superior form, home advantage and Sevilla's defensive issues heavily favour Los Verdiblancos. Sevilla will score — Lukebakio is too dangerous — but Betis' attacking quality should prove decisive. Both teams to score at ~2.00 odds offers excellent value, given the passion and unpredictability of El Gran Derbi.

Top 6 Betting Tips: Real Betis vs Sevilla

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