Real Madrid vs Levante Prediction & Betting Tips | La Liga 17/01/2026

Match Details

Competition: La Liga 2025/26 - Matchday 20
Date: Friday, January 17, 2026
Kick-off Time: 20:00 CET (19:00 GMT / 14:00 ET)
Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
Referee: TBC

Current Form & League Standings

Real Madrid - 2nd Place (39 Points - Title Chasers)

Xabi Alonso's Real Madrid are in the thick of a tense La Liga title race, sitting 2nd with 39 points, just 4 points behind leaders Barcelona after 19 matches. After surrendering a 7-point lead in December, Los Blancos are desperate to maintain pressure on the Catalans.

Their recent form shows resilience - a crushing 5-1 victory over Talavera on January 4th (Gonzalo García hat-trick, Asencio and Fran García goals) followed victories over Sevilla (2-0, December 20th) and Alavés (2-1, December 14th). However, shocking home losses to Celta Vigo (0-2, December 7th) exposed defensive vulnerabilities.

Home Record: Strong at the Bernabéu but occasional lapses
Goals Scored: 2.41 goals per match (highest in La Liga)
Goals Conceded: Defensive concerns persist
Last 5 Results: W-W-W-L-W

Injury Crisis:

• Éder Militão (OUT until April) - Ruptured biceps femoris tendon December 7th
• David Alaba - In/out of treatment room, just 145 minutes under Alonso
• Antonio Rüdiger - Fitness struggles, missed 2+ months with hamstring
• Only 2 fit center-backs: Dean Huijsen and Raúl Asencio

Transfer News:

• Endrick loaned to Lyon (until end of season, December 23rd)
• Guille González signed (17-year-old RB from Cádiz, January 1st)
• Targeting Marc Guehi (Crystal Palace), Adam Wharton for defensive reinforcement
• 8 players reportedly on January exit list (Rodrygo, Camavinga, Brahim Díaz among them)

Levante - 20th Place (9 Points - Relegation Zone)

Julián Calero's Levante are enduring a nightmare return to La Liga. After winning promotion in May 2025 (3-2 vs Burgos), Los Granotas sit bottom of the table with just 9 points from 19 matches (4 wins, 5 draws, 11 losses), 8 points from safety.

Their recent form has been dreadful - a 1-1 draw with Real Sociedad on January 5th offered brief hope, but they've won just once in their last 10 matches. The promoted side looks completely out of their depth in Spain's top flight, conceding 33 goals (1.73 per match) while scoring just 21 (1.10 per match).

Away Record: Horrific - 1 win, 2 draws, 7 losses on travels
Goals Scored: 1.10 goals per match (second-worst in La Liga)
Goals Conceded: 1.73 goals per match (defensive crisis)
Last 5 Results: D-L-D-W-L

Summer Activity:

• Etta Eyong (from Villarreal, fee) - Striker, 5 goals this season (top scorer)
• Mathew Ryan (free agent) - Australian goalkeeper signed August 27th
• Unai Vencedor (Athletic Club, loan) - Defensive midfielder
• Iker Losada (Real Betis, loan) - Attacking midfielder
• Andrés García departed to Aston Villa (€7m)

Head-to-Head Record

The historical data overwhelmingly favors Real Madrid. In their 43 all-time La Liga meetings, Real Madrid have won 28 matches compared to Levante's 9 victories, with 6 draws.

Critical Streak:
Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 8 meetings with Levante (6W, 2D). Levante's last victory came in February 2017 (2-1 at Ciutat de València) - nearly 9 years ago!

Most Recent Meetings:

1. February 27, 2022: Real Madrid 6-0 Levante (Bernabéu demolition - Benzema hat-trick)
2. August 22, 2021: Levante 3-3 Real Madrid (Vinícius brace, dramatic comeback)
3. May 22, 2021: Levante 2-0 Real Madrid (shock result on final day)
4. January 30, 2021: Real Madrid 2-0 Levante (Benzema double)
5. October 4, 2020: Levante 0-2 Real Madrid

Key Stats:

• Real Madrid scored 25 goals in last 6 meetings (average 4.17 per match!)
• Levante scored just 10 goals in same period
• The infamous 6-0 thrashing in 2022 remains fresh in memory
• Both teams score in approximately 40% of encounters

Real Madrid view Levante as guaranteed three points, especially with the visitors in relegation crisis.

Team News & Injuries

Real Madrid - Defensive Crisis Deepens

Xabi Alonso faces his worst injury situation of the season:

Definitely Out:

• Éder Militão (biceps femoris rupture) - OUT until April, devastating blow
• Kylian Mbappé (knee) - Recovering in Spain, missed Spanish Supercup
• David Alaba (recurring injuries) - Only 145 minutes all season, unreliable
• Antonio Rüdiger (fitness concerns) - Missed 2+ months, availability uncertain

Only 2 Fit Center-Backs: Dean Huijsen and Raúl Asencio!

Recent Departure:

• Endrick loaned to Lyon until June 2026 (December 23rd)

Available Squad:

• Jude Bellingham - English midfielder, crucial to Alonso's system
• Vinícius Jr. - Brazilian winger, world-class attacker (rumored Chelsea interest!)
• Rodrygo - Brazilian winger (€90m Liverpool bid reported, may leave!)
• Trent Alexander-Arnold - English RB from Liverpool (summer 2025), excellent form
• Álvaro Carreras - Youth product re-signed from Benfica
• Franco Mastantuono - 18-year-old Argentine talent (€45m from River Plate)
• Thibaut Courtois (captain) - Belgian goalkeeper, world-class
• Eduardo Camavinga - French midfielder (€50m valuation, exit rumors)
• Federico Valverde - Uruguayan midfielder, engine room
• Aurélien Tchouaméni - French midfielder, makeshift CB when needed
• Arda Güler - Turkish playmaker developing well
• Gonzalo García - 21-year-old striker (hat-trick vs Talavera, January 4th!)
• Brahim Díaz - Moroccan forward (€35m valuation, contract extension coming!)

Confirmed New Signing:

• Guille González (17, RB from Cádiz) - Joined January 1st

Transfer Targets:

• Marc Guehi (Crystal Palace) - CB priority
• Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace) - Midfield target (€100m price tag deterrent)
• Kees Smit (AZ Alkmaar) - Said "yes" to summer 2026 move (€75m)

Levante - Fighting for Survival

Julián Calero has most of his relegated-threatened squad available:

Available Key Players:

• Etta Eyong (5 goals) - Villarreal signing, only consistent goal threat
• Carlos Álvarez (2 goals) - Young forward attracting Atl Madrid interest
• José Luis Morales (37 years old, 2 goals) - Veteran experience
• Roger Brugué (captain, 1 goal) - Leadership needed
• Mathew Ryan - Australian goalkeeper signed as free agent
• Pablo Martínez (€3m valuation) - Midfielder linked with Valencia
• Alan Matturro - Uruguayan center-back
• Adrián de la Fuente - Center-back partner
• Diego Pampín - Left-back signed recently
• Unai Vencedor - Athletic Club loanee, defensive midfielder
• Iker Losada - Real Betis loanee, attacking midfielder

Transfer Situation:

• Andrés García departed to Aston Villa (€7m, December)
• Giorgi Kochorashvili transferred to Sporting CP
• Club needs to make sales before January signings possible
• Financial constraints limiting January activity

Predicted Lineups

Real Madrid (4-3-3)

GK: Courtois (c)
DEF: Alexander-Arnold, Huijsen, Asencio, Carreras
MID: Valverde, Tchouaméni, Bellingham
FWD: Rodrygo, González, Vinícius Jr.

Levante (4-4-2)

GK: Ryan
DEF: Toljan, Matturro, de la Fuente, Pampín
MID: Losada, Vencedor, Elgezabal, Romero
FWD: Eyong, Álvarez

Tactical Analysis

Real Madrid's Approach

Despite defensive injuries, Alonso will set Madrid up to dominate possession and overwhelm Levante through attacking quality. Expect Los Blancos to press high, win the ball in dangerous areas, and exploit Levante's defensive frailties through pace and movement.

Madrid's game plan:

1. Control possession (65-70%) through Valverde, Tchouaméni, and Bellingham's passing
2. Utilize Vinícius' pace and Rodrygo's directness to stretch Levante's defense
3. Target set-pieces - exploit aerial superiority despite defensive crisis
4. Quick transitions when winning possession
5. Alexander-Arnold's crosses from right-back creating chances

The key for Madrid is not underestimating a desperate, relegation-threatened opponent. Levante have nothing to lose and will defend desperately. Madrid must stay patient, avoid frustration, and trust their quality will eventually break through.

Gonzalo García's hat-trick against Talavera (January 4th) suggests he's in form. If given space against Levante's weak defense, he could score multiple goals.

Levante's Strategy

Calero has no illusions about this fixture. His team will set up ultra-defensively, prioritizing damage limitation over attacking ambition. Traveling to the Bernabéu and facing Madrid's attacking firepower requires complete defensive commitment.

Levante's game plan:

1. Sit in a deep 5-4-1 defensive block and deny space behind
2. Physical midfield battle - Vencedor must dominate duels
3. Hope for set-piece opportunities or counter-attacks through Eyong's pace
4. Frustrate Madrid for as long as possible (target: 0-0 at halftime)
5. Time-wasting, tactical fouls, and game management

Levante's best-case scenario is keeping the score respectable (0-2 or 1-3) to avoid goal difference damage in relegation battle. A point would be miraculous. Their sole focus is limiting damage while conserving energy for more winnable fixtures.

Eyong (5 goals) is their only consistent threat. If he can hold up play and bring others into attacks, Levante might steal a goal on the counter.

Key Battles

Vinícius Jr. vs Jeremy Toljan

Madrid's Brazilian superstar faces Levante's German right-back. Vinícius' pace, dribbling, and directness will test Toljan's positioning. If Vinícius isolates him in 1v1 situations, goals will come. This could be a long evening for Toljan.

Jude Bellingham vs Unai Vencedor

England's midfield maestro versus Levante's Athletic Club loanee. Bellingham's movement between lines and late runs into the box will test Vencedor's defensive awareness. If Bellingham finds space, Madrid will create numerous chances.

Gonzalo García vs Alan Matturro

Madrid's hat-trick hero (vs Talavera) faces Levante's Uruguayan center-back. García's movement and finishing ability will test Matturro's concentration. If the young striker continues his form, he'll score against Levante's vulnerable defense.

Thibaut Courtois vs Etta Eyong

World-class goalkeeper versus Levante's only consistent goal threat. Courtois must stay focused despite expected dominance. Eyong will test him with rare chances - one mistake could embarrass Madrid.

Betting Tips & Predictions

Main Prediction: Real Madrid to Win

Recommended Bet: Real Madrid to Win @ 1.18 odds

Despite low odds, Madrid's home advantage, superior quality, Levante's relegation crisis, and 8-match unbeaten H2H streak make this the safest bet. Expect a comfortable home victory.

Alternative Betting Options

Real Madrid -2.5 Handicap @ 1.85

• Quality differential enormous with Levante bottom of table
• Madrid desperate after surrendering 7-point lead to Barcelona
• Levante's awful away record (1 win, 2 draws, 7 losses)
• Madrid won 6-0 in last home meeting (2022)
• Historical average 4.17 goals per match (last 6 meetings)
• Excellent value at 1.85 odds

Over 3.5 Goals @ 1.90

• Madrid averaging 2.41 goals per match (highest in La Liga)
• Last 6 H2H meetings: average 4.17 goals per match!
• Levante's defensive crisis (33 goals conceded in 19 matches)
• Madrid scored 6, 3, 3, 2, 2 in recent home meetings
• Outstanding value given historical patterns

Real Madrid Win to Nil @ 1.70

• Levante's offensive crisis (just 21 goals in 19 matches, 1.10 per game)
• Madrid's home defensive record solid when focused
• Levante struggle to create chances away from home
• Good odds given Levante's attacking limitations

Vinícius Jr. Anytime Goalscorer @ 1.80

• Brazilian in excellent form despite Chelsea transfer rumors
• Facing Levante's vulnerable right side (Toljan)
• Scored 2 in crazy 3-3 draw at Levante (August 2021)
• Excellent odds for world-class attacker vs bottom-of-table defense

First Half Winner: Real Madrid @ 1.60

• Madrid typically start explosively at Bernabéu
• Levante struggle early in away matches (confidence issues)
• Madrid scored in first half in 75% of home matches
• Value odds given likely early dominance

Correct Score: 4-0 Real Madrid @ 9.00

• Reflects Madrid's attacking quality and Levante's defensive crisis
• Clean sheet likely given Levante's offensive struggles
• Similar to 6-0 thrashing in 2022
• Excellent value at 9.00 odds

Gonzalo García Anytime Goalscorer @ 2.80

• Hat-trick hero vs Talavera (January 4th), confidence high
• Facing bottom-of-table defense
• Could start given Mbappé's injury
• Outstanding odds for in-form striker

Match Statistics to Watch

Possession Battle

Expect Madrid to dominate possession (70-75%), with Levante ultra-compact in their defensive third.

Shots on Target

Madrid should have 16-20 shots with 8-12 on target. Levante limited to 2-4 shots total with 0-2 on target.

Set Pieces & Corners

Madrid will dominate corners (12-16 vs 1-3). Could be match-deciding given aerial threats despite defensive injuries.

Defensive Actions

Levante will make 70+ defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances) defending deep. Exhaustion after 60 minutes likely.

Expert Verdict

This La Liga clash represents one of the season's most predictable fixtures. Title-chasing Real Madrid (2nd, 39 pts, 4 behind Barcelona) host bottom-of-table Levante (20th, 9 pts, 8 from safety) at the Bernabéu in a match that should produce a comfortable home victory.

Final Score Prediction: Real Madrid 4-0 Levante

The key factors:

1. Madrid's 8-match unbeaten streak vs Levante (6W, 2D) - last Levante win: February 2017!
2. Historical dominance at Bernabéu (6-0 thrashing in 2022 still fresh)
3. Levante's relegation crisis - bottom of table, 8 points from safety
4. Madrid's title ambitions - 4 points behind Barcelona, cannot drop home points
5. Quality differential across every position
6. Levante's awful away record (1-2-7, just 5 points from 10 matches)
7. Madrid scoring 2.41 goals per match (highest in La Liga)
8. Levante conceding 1.73 per match (defensive crisis)
9. Gonzalo García's form (hat-trick vs Talavera, January 4th)
10. Vinícius and Rodrygo's pace vs Levante's slow defense

Why Madrid Will Win:

Madrid possess overwhelming superiority across every position. Vinícius, Rodrygo, Bellingham, and García provide attacking threats Levante cannot match. At the Bernabéu, with the title race heating up, Madrid will be ruthless.

Despite the defensive crisis (only Huijsen and Asencio fit at CB), Madrid's attacking quality should overwhelm Levante's fragile defense. The visitors have conceded 33 goals in 19 matches - Madrid will exploit every weakness.

Alonso knows dropping points at home to bottom-of-table opposition would be catastrophic for title hopes. Expect intense focus, clinical finishing, and professional performance from start to finish.

Why Levante Could Cause an Upset:

Don't completely discount Levante. They possess individual quality in Eyong (5 goals) and young talent Álvarez (attracting Atlético Madrid interest). If they can stay compact for 60 minutes and steal a goal on the counter, anything is possible.

Madrid's defensive crisis (only 2 fit CBs) creates vulnerability. If Levante can exploit set-pieces or counter-attacks, they might score. The 3-3 draw at Levante in August 2021 (Vinícius brace) proves these fixtures can be chaotic.

However, realistically, Levante's crisis (bottom of table, 1 away win all season, 8 points from safety) makes even a draw extremely unlikely.

Most Likely Scenario:

Madrid will dominate possession (70%+), create numerous chances, and eventually demolish Levante's defensive block. Expect goals from multiple sources - Vinícius down the left, Rodrygo cutting inside, Bellingham's late runs, García's movement.

Levante will defend deep, stay compact, and hope to keep the score respectable. However, after 30-40 minutes of relentless pressure, their resistance will crack. Madrid will score 3-4 goals in an ruthlessly efficient performance.

A 4-0 or 5-0 Madrid victory seems most probable. Clean sheet very likely given Levante's offensive crisis (1.10 goals per match). Madrid will send a statement to Barcelona: we're still in this title race.

Confidence Level: 10/10 for Madrid victory, 9/10 for Over 3.5 Goals

Historical Context: Levante's Promotion Dream Turns Nightmare

Levante's return to La Liga after three years in Segunda División was supposed to be a triumphant homecoming. After securing promotion on May 25, 2025 (3-2 vs Burgos), Los Granotas dreamed of mid-table stability.

The Reality:

Instead, they've endured a nightmare. With just 9 points from 19 matches, Levante sit bottom of the table, 8 points from safety. Their squad, built for Segunda División, looks completely out of depth against La Liga quality.

What Went Wrong:

1. Squad Quality Insufficient:
Despite signing Etta Eyong (Villarreal), Mathew Ryan, and several loanees, Levante lack the quality to compete. Their total squad value (€24.4m) is dwarfed by Real Madrid's (€1+ billion).

2. Defensive Crisis:
Conceding 33 goals in 19 matches (1.73 per game) reflects systematic defensive issues. Against elite attacks like Madrid's, they're overwhelmed.

3. Offensive Struggles:
Scoring just 21 goals (1.10 per match) leaves them reliant on Eyong (5 goals). When he doesn't score, they struggle to create chances.

4. Financial Constraints:
Unlike other promoted sides, Levante cannot spend heavily in January. Their €18m debt history limits reinforcements.

5. Away Form Catastrophic:
Just 1 win, 2 draws, 7 losses on travels (5 points from 10 matches) makes away fixtures like this nearly impossible.

For Nigerian football fans, Levante's plight represents the harsh realities of promotion. Without significant investment and squad quality, survival is almost impossible against Spain's elite.

Madrid's Title Race: Every Point Matters

Real Madrid's season has been a rollercoaster. After leading La Liga by 7 points in early December, Los Blancos surrendered that advantage through inconsistent results. Now trailing Barcelona by 4 points, every match is crucial.

The Pressure:

Xabi Alonso is under immense scrutiny. His first season must deliver silverware - preferably La Liga. After Carlo Ancelotti's departure (mutual decision, May 23, 2025), Alonso arrived with huge expectations.

Summer Investment:

Madrid spent heavily:

• Trent Alexander-Arnold (free from Liverpool) - Excellent
• Dean Huijsen (€25m from Bournemouth) - Solid
• Álvaro Carreras (from Benfica) - Promising
• Franco Mastantuono (€45m from River Plate) - Developing

Yet defensive injuries (Militão OUT until April, Alaba unreliable, Rüdiger fitness issues) have exposed squad depth issues.

Transfer Rumors:

Reports suggest 8 players could leave in January:

• Rodrygo (€90m Liverpool bid)
• Camavinga (€50m valuation)
• Brahim Díaz (€35m)
• And others

If true, this would represent massive squad upheaval mid-season - risky when chasing Barcelona.

This Match:

Against bottom-of-table Levante at home, Madrid cannot afford slip-ups. Three points are mandatory. Anything less would be catastrophic for title ambitions and Alonso's job security.

For Nigerian fans, this exemplifies the relentless pressure at Europe's elite clubs. One bad result can derail an entire season.

Final Thoughts

This La Liga clash should produce a routine Real Madrid victory. Their superior quality, home advantage, title ambitions, and Levante's relegation crisis make this one of the season's most predictable fixtures.

For Nigerian football fans looking to bet on this match, Real Madrid to Win @ 1.18 is the safest option (though low odds), while Real Madrid -2.5 Handicap @ 1.85 offers better value given the circumstances. Over 3.5 Goals @ 1.90 represents excellent value considering the historical average (4.17 goals in last 6 meetings!).

One thing is certain: the Bernabéu will expect nothing less than a dominant performance. Madrid must deliver to maintain pressure on Barcelona and prove they're still genuine title contenders.

Levante will defend desperately, but against Madrid's attacking firepower, they face mission impossible.

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Expert Betting Tips for This Match:

• Best Value: Real Madrid -2.5 Handicap @ 1.85 (quality should show clearly)
• Safest Bet: Real Madrid to Win @ 1.18 (home advantage, title ambitions)
• Excellent Odds: Over 3.5 Goals @ 1.90 (historical average 4.17 goals!)
• Value Goalscorer: Vinícius Jr. Anytime @ 1.80 (Brazilian star vs weak defense)
• In-Form: Gonzalo García Anytime @ 2.80 (hat-trick hero, confidence high!)
• Dominant Win: Correct Score 4-0 Madrid @ 9.00 (excellent value for likely scoreline)

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