Real Madrid vs Real Betis Prediction & Betting Tips | La Liga 04/01/2026

Match Details

Competition: La Liga 2025/26
Date: Saturday, January 4, 2026
Kick-off Time: 15:15 CET (14:15 GMT)
Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
Referee: TBC

Current Form & League Standings

Real Madrid - 2nd Place (39 Points)

Real Madrid enters 2026 sitting just behind Barcelona in the La Liga title race. Under Xabi Alonso's guidance, Los Blancos have shown attacking brilliance led by the phenomenal Kylian Mbappé, who has scored 58 goals in the 2025 calendar year - just one shy of Cristiano Ronaldo's historic club record of 59 set in 2013.

Despite Mbappé's heroics, Real Madrid have struggled with consistency away from home, recording only 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches across all competitions. Their recent 1-1 draws against Girona and other away fixtures have cost them valuable points in the title race.

Home Record: Strong at the Bernabéu with clinical finishing
Goals Scored: 2.41 goals per match (best in La Liga)
Goals Conceded: Defensive concerns persist
Last 5 Results: W-D-W-D-W

Real Betis - 6th Place (24 Points)

Manuel Pellegrini's Real Betis have enjoyed an impressive campaign, sitting comfortably in the European qualification spots. Los Verdiblancos are unbeaten in 14 of their last 15 matches across all competitions, with only 1 defeat in their last 10 La Liga games.

Betis' possession-based approach (averaging 477 passes per game) has caused problems for many La Liga sides, and they've shown excellent form recently with key signings like Antony (permanent from Manchester United) making an immediate impact.

Away Record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in last 5
Goals Scored: 1.73 goals per match
Goals Conceded: Solid defensive structure
Last 5 Results: W-W-D-W-W

Head-to-Head Record

The historical data strongly favors Real Madrid in this fixture. In their last 28 meetings, Real Madrid has dominated with 16 wins compared to Real Betis' 5 victories, with 7 draws. Overall, Los Blancos have won 26 out of 49 encounters, scoring 76 goals to Betis' 37.

Recent H2H Stats:

• Average Goals Per Match: 2.55
• Real Madrid won the last encounter 2-1
• Last 5 Meetings: Madrid 14 wins, Betis 5 wins, 7 draws (since 2020)

However, Real Betis have caused problems for Madrid at times, and their current form suggests they won't make it easy for the home side.

Team News & Injuries

Real Madrid - Rotation Expected

Xabi Alonso has a relatively healthy squad but may need to manage players following the busy festive period:

Definitely Out:

• David Alaba (knee) - Long-term injury, not expected until late January
• Dani Carvajal (veteran) - Managing minutes

Expected to Start:

• Kylian Mbappé - In red-hot form with 29 goals in 26 matches this season
• Trent Alexander-Arnold - Summer signing from Liverpool, excellent form at right-back
• Jude Bellingham - Key creative force in midfield
• Vinicius Jr. - Back to his best with crucial goals
• Dean Huijsen - Summer signing from Bournemouth, solid in defense
• Franco Mastantuono - Young talent impressing

Squad Depth: Courtois in goal, with Lunin as backup. Midfield options include Valverde, Tchouameni, Arda Güler, and Ceballos. Forward options feature Rodrygo, Brahim Díaz, and Gonzalo García.

Real Betis - Key Absences

Manuel Pellegrini faces several injury concerns ahead of this challenging fixture:

Definitely Out:

• Isco (injury) - Still unavailable
• Junior Firpo (injury) - Defensive absence
• Hector Bellerin (injury) - Right-back missing

Doubtful:

• Diego Llorente (hamstring) - Recently returned to bench, may not start
• Pau López (physical discomfort) - Goalkeeper fitness concern

Good News:

• Nelson Deossa (ankle) - Back in training after ankle injury
• Antony - Permanent signing from Manchester United in excellent form (5 goals, 2 assists in 17 appearances last season)
• Giovani Lo Celso - Key playmaker available
• Marc Bartra - Veteran defender recovered from muscle injury

Predicted Lineups

Real Madrid (4-3-3)

GK: Courtois
DEF: Alexander-Arnold, Huijsen, Rüdiger, Valdepeñas
MID: Valverde, Tchouameni, Bellingham
FWD: Rodrygo, Mbappé, Vinicius Jr.

Real Betis (4-2-3-1)

GK: Álvaro Valles
DEF: Sabaly, Bartra, Llorente*, Ricardo Rodríguez
MID: Altimira, Roca
ATT: Antony, Lo Celso, Abde
ST: Chimy Ávila

*Llorente is doubtful - may be replaced by Natan

Tactical Analysis

Real Madrid's Approach

Xabi Alonso has implemented a more controlled style compared to Ancelotti's approach, but Real Madrid remain devastating in transition. Expect them to dominate possession (typically 55-60%) while looking for Mbappé to exploit any space behind Betis' defensive line.

The key will be how Trent Alexander-Arnold pushes forward from right-back, providing width and crossing opportunities. With Vinicius Jr. on the left and Rodrygo on the right, Madrid can stretch Betis' defense. Bellingham's late runs into the box from midfield provide an additional goal threat.

Madrid will press high early to establish dominance at the Bernabéu, with Mbappé's pace on the counter-attack a constant threat if Betis commit players forward.

Real Betis' Strategy

Pellegrini will set up Betis to frustrate Madrid through disciplined possession football. Averaging 477 passes per game, Los Verdiblancos will look to control tempo and deny Madrid's attacking rhythm. However, they must be wary of Madrid's quick transitions.

Betis' success will depend on:

1. Keeping it tight in the first 20 minutes when Madrid typically starts strong at home
2. Using Antony's pace and Lo Celso's creativity to create chances on the break
3. Maintaining defensive shape to limit Mbappé's space
4. Exploiting set-pieces (one of their key weapons)

The visitors will likely adopt a compact 4-4-2 out of possession, with Antony and Abde tracking back to support their full-backs against Madrid's wide threats.

Key Battles

Kylian Mbappé vs Marc Bartra

The clash of the match. Mbappé has scored 58 goals in 2025 and is in unstoppable form. The veteran Bartra will need all his experience to contain Madrid's talisman, who scored 60 goals in calendar year 2025 across all competitions - joining Messi, Ronaldo, and Lewandowski in an exclusive club.

Jude Bellingham vs Sergi Altimira

Bellingham's energy and goal-scoring ability from midfield will test Betis' young midfielder Altimira. The England star has been crucial in Madrid's buildup play and provides late runs into the box. Altimira must disrupt his rhythm while maintaining Betis' possession structure.

Antony vs Víctor Valdepeñas

The Manchester United exile has rediscovered his Ajax form at Betis and will test the young Real Madrid left-back. Antony's dribbling and direct running could expose any defensive frailties, especially if Valdepeñas pushes too high supporting attacks.

Betting Tips & Predictions

Main Prediction: Real Madrid to Win

Recommended Bet: Real Madrid to Win @ 1.40 odds

Despite Betis' excellent form, Real Madrid at the Bernabéu with Mbappé in sensational form should prove too strong. The home side needs to keep pressure on Barcelona at the top, and dropping points is not an option.

Alternative Betting Options

Both Teams to Score - YES @ 1.85

• Real Madrid have been involved in high-scoring matches (average 2.41 goals scored)
• Betis possess quality attackers and have scored in most away games
• Madrid's defensive concerns could be exploited

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70

• Historical average of 2.55 goals per match between these sides
• Madrid averaging 2.41 goals per game this season
• Both teams play attacking football with quality finishers

Kylian Mbappé Anytime Goalscorer @ 1.50

• In phenomenal form with 58 goals in 2025
• Just scored twice against Talavera midweek in Copa del Rey
• Scored in 10 of his last 11 matches
• Has excellent record against mid-table La Liga sides

Real Madrid -1 Handicap @ 2.00

• Madrid typically dominate at the Bernabéu
• Betis may tire after busy December schedule
• Quality difference should show in scoreline

Correct Score: 3-1 Real Madrid @ 9.00

• Reflects Madrid's home dominance and attacking quality
• Accounts for Betis' ability to grab a consolation
• Similar pattern seen in recent home fixtures

Match Statistics to Watch

Possession Battle

Real Madrid expected to have 55-60% possession, with Betis comfortable defending in a compact shape.

Shots on Target

Madrid average significantly more attempts and clinical finishing. Expect 8-12 shots on target compared to Betis' 3-5.

Corners & Set Pieces

Real Madrid dominate corner counts at home. Betis dangerous from set-pieces with Bartra's aerial presence.

Key Passes & Creativity

Bellingham and Güler provide creativity for Madrid. Lo Celso is Betis' main playmaker and will be crucial to any success.

Expert Verdict

This fixture promises an intriguing clash of styles with Real Madrid's individual brilliance against Real Betis' collective discipline. While Betis arrive in excellent form and will make it competitive, the quality of Mbappé combined with Madrid's desperation for three points should see Los Blancos prevail.

Final Score Prediction: Real Madrid 3-1 Real Betis

The key factors:

1. Mbappé's historic goal-scoring form (58 goals in 2025)
2. Real Madrid's home advantage at the Bernabéu
3. Madrid's superior individual quality across the squad
4. Pressure to keep pace with Barcelona in title race
5. Trent Alexander-Arnold's attacking threat from right-back
6. Betis' injury concerns in defense (Bellerin, Firpo out)

However, Betis are no pushovers. Their unbeaten run of 14 in 15 games shows their quality, and they possess the technical ability to cause Madrid problems. If Betis can weather Madrid's early storm and keep it tight for the first 30 minutes, this could be much closer than expected.

The match could also be significant for Mbappé's pursuit of Cristiano Ronaldo's calendar year record - though he fell just short with 60 goals in 2025, he'll be eager to start 2026 with another goal-scoring performance.

Confidence Level: 8/10 for Real Madrid victory

Where to Watch

Spain: DAZN La Liga
UK: LaLigaTV
USA: ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
International: Check local La Liga broadcasters

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What time does Real Madrid vs Real Betis kick off?
A: The match kicks off at 15:15 CET (14:15 GMT) on Saturday, January 4, 2026.

Q: Did Kylian Mbappé break Cristiano Ronaldo's goal record?
A: Mbappé scored 60 goals in calendar year 2025 (matching Ronaldo's total from other years), but finished with 58 goals specifically for Real Madrid in 2025, falling just one short of Ronaldo's club record of 59 in 2013.

Q: Will Trent Alexander-Arnold play for Real Madrid?
A: Yes, Alexander-Arnold joined Real Madrid from Liverpool in summer 2025 and has been excellent at right-back. He's expected to start this match.

Q: What is Real Betis' current form?
A: Real Betis are in excellent form, unbeaten in 14 of their last 15 matches with only 1 defeat in their last 10 La Liga games. They currently sit 6th in the table.

Q: Who is favored to win Real Madrid vs Real Betis?
A: Real Madrid are strong favorites at around 1.40 odds, with Betis priced at 7.00 for an away win, and the draw at 5.00.

Historical Context: Real Madrid's 2025/26 Season

The 2025/26 campaign has been a transitional one for Real Madrid following the departure of Carlo Ancelotti and legendary captain Luka Modrić. Xabi Alonso arrived from Bayer Leverkusen with a clear mandate: restore Madrid to European and domestic dominance.

Key summer signings included:

• Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool, free transfer)
• Dean Huijsen (Bournemouth, €25m)
• Álvaro Carreras (Manchester United, undisclosed)
• Franco Mastantuono (River Plate, €25m)

The season started promisingly with victories over Osasuna, Oviedo, and Mallorca. Mbappé, in his second season, has finally found his rhythm after a difficult first year, becoming the focal point of Madrid's attack. The Frenchman's 60 goals in calendar year 2025 placed him alongside Messi, Ronaldo, and Lewandowski as the only players in the 21st century to achieve such a feat.

However, Madrid's away form has been inconsistent, with draws at difficult venues costing them top spot to Barcelona. The pressure is mounting on Alonso to deliver silverware in his first season, and dropping points at home is simply not acceptable.

Real Betis' Resurgence Under Pellegrini

Manuel Pellegrini has Real Betis playing their best football in years. The Chilean's possession-based philosophy suits the technical quality in his squad, with players like Lo Celso, Antony, and Marc Roca excelling in the system.

The permanent signing of Antony from Manchester United has proven inspired. The Brazilian struggled at Old Trafford but has rediscovered the form that made him Ajax's most exciting talent. His 5 goals and 2 assists during last season's loan spell convinced Betis to make the move permanent, and he's continued that form into 2025/26.

Betis' European ambitions are realistic with their current form. Sitting 6th and within touching distance of 4th place Villarreal, Champions League qualification remains a genuine possibility. However, performances against the league's elite - Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atlético - will ultimately determine whether they can sustain their challenge.

Their unbeaten run has been built on defensive solidity and patient buildup play. Unlike many mid-table sides who sit deep against Madrid, Betis will attempt to play their game and control possession. This approach could backfire if Madrid's quality shines through, but it's also what makes Betis such an interesting opponent.

The Mbappé Factor

No discussion of this match is complete without addressing the Kylian Mbappé phenomenon. The Frenchman's 2025 was nothing short of extraordinary:

2025 Statistics:

• 60 goals in all competitions across calendar year
• 58 goals specifically for Real Madrid (2nd highest in club history for a single year)
• 29 goals in 26 matches in 2025/26 season
• 17 goals in 17 La Liga matches this season (joint top scorer)
• 1.03 goals per 90 minutes
• First French player since Just Fontaine (1958) to score 60+ in a calendar year

His transformation from struggling summer 2024 signing to Madrid's undisputed star has been remarkable. Under Alonso's guidance, Mbappé has been given the freedom to operate across the forward line, utilizing his pace, finishing, and movement to devastating effect.

Real Betis will likely employ a man-marking system on Mbappé through veteran defender Marc Bartra, but history suggests that even the best defenders struggle to contain him over 90 minutes. If Betis commit too many resources to stopping Mbappé, they'll leave space for Vinicius Jr., Bellingham, or Rodrygo to exploit.

For Nigerian football fans looking to bet on this spectacle, Mbappé anytime goalscorer at 1.50 odds represents excellent value given his current form. The French superstar has made a habit of scoring important goals in big matches.

Final Thoughts

This New Year's weekend fixture promises to be an entertaining spectacle at the Santiago Bernabéu. Real Madrid, desperate to close the gap on Barcelona, face a Real Betis side full of confidence and playing excellent football.

The smart money is firmly on Real Madrid. Their home record, Mbappé's phenomenal form, and the quality differential should prove decisive. However, Betis have shown they can compete with anyone on their day, and they'll relish the opportunity to test themselves against one of Europe's giants.

For Madrid, it's about maintaining pressure on Barcelona and building momentum heading into a crucial period of the season. For Betis, it's about proving their European credentials and showing they belong among Spain's elite.

One thing is certain: with Mbappé in this kind of form and Betis playing attractive, attacking football, we're guaranteed goals and entertainment. The Bernabéu crowd will expect nothing less.

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