Sevilla vs Celta Vigo Prediction & Betting Tips | La Liga 12/01/2026

Match Details

Competition: La Liga 2025/26
Date: Sunday, January 12, 2026
Kick-off Time: 18:00 CET (17:00 GMT)
Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Seville
Referee: TBC

Current Form & League Standings

Sevilla - 14th Place (16 Points)

Sevilla's season under manager Joaquin Almeyda has been deeply disappointing. The Andalusian giants sit in 14th position with just 16 points from 17 matches (5-1-11), dangerously close to the relegation zone. This represents Sevilla's worst start to a La Liga season in over two decades.

Their most recent match saw them suffer a humiliating 0-2 home defeat to Real Madrid on December 20th at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. The loss extended a troubling pattern of defensive fragility and lack of attacking creativity that has plagued them all season.

Home Record: Struggling at the Pizjuán with only 2 wins in 8 matches
Goals Scored: 1.36 goals per match (among lowest in La Liga)
Goals Conceded: 1.64 goals per match (defensive issues)
Last 5 Results: L-D-L-L-W

Summer Departures Hurt: The club lost key players without adequate replacements:

• Ivan Rakitić (retired/departed)
• Youssef En-Nesyri (moved on)
• Multiple defensive departures

Summer Signings:

• Alexis Sánchez (free from Udinese) - Veteran Chilean striker adding experience
• César Azpilicueta (from Atlético Madrid) - 35-year-old defender signed for experience
• Batista Mendy (loan from Trabzonspor) - Defensive midfielder

Celta Vigo - 13th Place (16 Points)

Celta Vigo under Claudio Giráldez are in a similar predicament, sitting 13th with 16 points from 16 matches (3-7-6). Los Celestes have shown flashes of quality, including their stunning 0-2 victory at Real Madrid's Bernabéu on December 7th, but consistency remains elusive.

Most recently, Celta played out a 0-0 draw away to Real Oviedo on December 20th in the Copa del Rey before winning on penalties. Their La Liga form has been characterized by too many draws (7 in 16 matches) that have left them hovering precariously above the drop zone.

Away Record: Inconsistent on travels
Goals Scored: 1.14 goals per match
Goals Conceded: 1.36 goals per match
Last 5 Results: D-L-W-L-D

Summer Signings Made Impact:

• Bryan Zaragoza (loan from Bayern München for €1m) - Exciting Spanish winger with €25m option to buy
• Borja Iglesias (free from Real Betis) - Experienced striker
• Ferran Jutglà (€5m from Club Brugge) - Forward adding depth
• Ionut Andrei Radu (free from Venezia) - Romanian goalkeeper

Key Departure:

• Johnny Cardoso (sold to Atlético Madrid) - American midfielder, first in Atletico's history

Head-to-Head Record

The historical data shows a relatively balanced fixture. In their 40 all-time La Liga meetings, Sevilla have won 16 matches compared to Celta Vigo's 15 victories, with 9 draws. The average goals per match is 2.55.

Recent Form (Last 5 Meetings):

• Sevilla: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses
• Celta Vigo: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss

Most Recent Encounter:

• May 11, 2025: Celta Vigo 3-2 Sevilla (away win for Sevilla's perspective)

Last Meeting at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán:

• December 14, 2024: Sevilla 1-0 Celta Vigo (narrow home victory)

Key H2H Trends:

• 56% of matches have seen Over 2.5 Goals
• Both teams have scored in approximately 50% of encounters
• Home advantage slight: Sevilla have won 9 of 20 home matches against Celta

This fixture typically produces goals and competitive football. Neither side has dominated recently, making it a genuine toss-up.

Team News & Injuries

Sevilla - Depleted Squad

Joaquin Almeyda faces selection issues ahead of this crucial relegation six-pointer:

Definitely Out:

• Tanguy Nianzou (injury) - French center-back missing, major defensive absence
• Joan Jordán (injury) - Midfielder unavailable
• Alfon González (injury) - Youth player sidelined

Doubtful:

• José Ángel Carmona (suspension concern) - May be suspended due to accumulated yellows

Transfer News:

• Fran Beltrán (Celta midfielder) - Sevilla reportedly pursuing him in January window
• Batista Mendy - On loan from Trabzonspor, wants permanent move
• Sporting Director Antonio Cordón preparing winter changes, with 34-year-old veterans potentially departing

Available Key Players:

• Alexis Sánchez (35) - Former Arsenal/Barcelona star, veteran leadership
• César Azpilicueta (35) - Defensive experience from Chelsea/Atlético
• Dodi Lukébakio - Belgian winger, creative threat
• Isaac Romero - Young striker, hope for goals
• José Ángel Carmona - Right-back (if not suspended)
• Loïc Badé - French center-back, defensive anchor
• Nemanja Gudelj - Serbian midfielder

Celta Vigo - Key Absences

Claudio Giráldez also faces injury challenges:

Definitely Out:

• Mihailo Ristić (injury) - Serbian left-back unavailable
• Sergio Carreira (injury) - Defensive midfielder missing

Available Squad:

• Iago Aspas (captain, 37) - Legendary striker still producing moments of magic
• Williot Swedberg - Swedish winger who scored both goals in 2-0 win at Real Madrid
• Borja Iglesias - Former Real Betis striker leading the line
• Bryan Zaragoza - Bayern loanee providing pace and trickery
• Óscar Mingueza - Versatile defender/midfielder
• Fran Beltrán - Midfielder target of Sevilla's interest
• Carl Starfelt - Swedish defender, key under Giráldez
• Jailson - Brazilian midfielder
• Iván Villar - Goalkeeper (or Radu)

Predicted Lineups

Sevilla (4-3-3)

GK: Álvaro Fernández
DEF: Carmona, Badé, Marcão, Pedrosa
MID: Gudelj, Sow, Agoumé
FWD: Lukébakio, Romero, Ejuke

Celta Vigo (3-4-3)

GK: Villar
DEF: Starfelt, Alonso, Domínguez
MID: Mingueza, Beltrán, Moriba, Álvarez
FWD: Swedberg, Iglesias, Aspas (c)

Tactical Analysis

Sevilla's Approach

Almeyda faces immense pressure to secure three points in this relegation six-pointer. Expect Sevilla to set up aggressively at home, looking to impose themselves early and capitalize on crowd support at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.

Sevilla's game plan:

1. High press to disrupt Celta's buildup play
2. Utilize width through Lukébakio and Ejuke to stretch Celta's back three
3. Quick transitions when winning possession
4. Set-pieces as a key weapon (Sevilla strong aerially)
5. Protect the vulnerable defense by not committing too many forward

The key concern is Sevilla's lack of goals (1.36 per match). Isaac Romero and Alexis Sánchez must provide clinical finishing, as chances will be limited. Defensively, Sevilla must avoid the mistakes that saw them concede 2 to Real Madrid at home.

Celta Vigo's Strategy

Giráldez will likely adopt a cautious approach away from home, particularly given both teams' precarious league positions. Expect Celta to sit in a compact 5-3-2/3-4-3 defensive shape and look to hit Sevilla on the counter.

Los Celestes' game plan:

1. Absorb pressure and stay compact defensively
2. Exploit Sevilla's defensive frailties on counter-attacks
3. Utilize Swedberg's pace and Aspas' experience on the break
4. Deny space to Lukébakio and Ejuke in wide areas
5. Target set-pieces with aerial presence

Celta's biggest advantage is Sevilla's defensive vulnerability. If they can stay organized for 60-70 minutes and keep the game tight, they have the quality (Aspas, Swedberg, Iglesias) to steal a goal and potentially all three points.

The match could be decided by individual moments of brilliance rather than tactical dominance, as both teams are struggling for form and confidence.

Key Battles

Isaac Romero vs Carl Starfelt

Sevilla's young striker faces Celta's Swedish center-back who has become crucial under Giráldez. Romero's movement and finishing will be tested by Starfelt's physical presence and positioning. Whichever player wins this duel could determine the match outcome.

Dodi Lukébakio vs Hugo Álvarez

The Belgian winger's pace and dribbling ability will test Celta's left wing-back. If Lukébakio can isolate Álvarez in 1v1 situations, Sevilla will create chances. However, Álvarez's recovery speed and defensive awareness could neutralize this threat.

Alexis Sánchez (35) vs Iago Aspas (37)

The battle of the veterans! Both legendary forwards are in the twilight of their careers but remain influential. Sánchez's experience and technical quality versus Aspas' football IQ and clinical finishing could produce match-winning moments from either player.

Loïc Badé vs Borja Iglesias

The French center-back must contain former Real Betis striker Iglesias, who knows La Liga intimately. Badé's pace and tackling will be tested by Iglesias' movement and link-up play. Physical dominance will be key.

Betting Tips & Predictions

Main Prediction: Draw

Recommended Bet: Draw @ 3.20 odds

Both teams are in poor form, fighting relegation, and neither can afford to lose. Expect a cagey, tense affair where both sides prioritize not conceding. The 0-0 or 1-1 draw feels most likely given the circumstances.

Alternative Betting Options

Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85

• Sevilla averaging just 1.36 goals per match
• Celta averaging 1.14 goals per match
• Both teams defensively cautious given relegation concerns
• Recent H2H: 56% Over 2.5, but current form suggests low-scoring
• Risk-averse football expected in six-pointer

Both Teams to Score - NO @ 1.95

• 50% of recent H2H matches saw BTTS
• Both teams struggling offensively this season
• Defensive organization prioritized in relegation battles
• At least one team likely to keep clean sheet

Double Chance: Sevilla or Draw @ 1.45

• Sevilla's home advantage in must-win game
• Celta's poor away record (inconsistent)
• Pressure on Sevilla to perform for demanding home fans
• Safest betting option given uncertainty

Correct Score: 1-1 Draw @ 6.50

• Most likely scoreline given both teams' form
• Reflects balanced head-to-head record
• Both sides have quality to score one goal
• Excellent value at 6.50 odds

Iago Aspas Anytime Goalscorer @ 3.00

• Celta's 37-year-old captain still produces moments of magic
• Scored against Sevilla multiple times in career
• Primary set-piece taker and penalty specialist
• Good value given his class and experience

Alexis Sánchez Anytime Goalscorer @ 3.50

• 35-year-old former Arsenal/Barcelona star
• Sevilla's most experienced attacking option
• Needs to deliver in crucial relegation battle
• Higher odds reflect age but quality remains

Match Statistics to Watch

Possession Battle

Expect relatively even possession (50-50 or 55-45 to Sevilla), with neither team dominating.

Shots on Target

Low-quality chances expected. Sevilla 4-6 shots on target vs Celta 3-5.

Discipline & Cards

High-stakes relegation battle could produce cynical fouls. Expect 5-7 yellow cards total, possible red card.

Set Pieces

Both teams dangerous from dead balls. Could be the decisive factor with aerial threats on both sides.

Expert Verdict

This fixture represents a crucial relegation six-pointer between two Spanish giants struggling far below expectations. Both Sevilla and Celta Vigo enter with just 16 points from 17 and 16 matches respectively, making this a must-not-lose encounter.

Final Score Prediction: Sevilla 1-1 Celta Vigo

The key factors:

1. Both teams' poor form and desperation for points
2. Historical balance in this fixture (16-15-9 record)
3. Defensive frailties on both sides but cautious approaches expected
4. Neither team can afford to lose in relegation battle
5. Home advantage for Sevilla but Celta's recent Bernabéu win shows quality
6. Veteran influence (Sánchez 35, Aspas 37, Azpilicueta 35) could produce moments
7. Tactical caution likely to produce cagey, low-scoring affair

Why a Draw is Most Likely:

Both managers will prioritize not losing over winning. In relegation battles, teams often play conservatively, especially when facing direct rivals. The psychological pressure makes mistakes costly, encouraging defensive football.

Sevilla's home advantage is mitigated by their poor form (only 2 home wins in 8) and lack of goals. Celta's inconsistency away from home means they'll set up cautiously. Expect a tight, nervous affair with few clear chances.

Alternative Scenario: Sevilla Edge It 1-0

If Sevilla can:

• Generate early pressure and score within first 30 minutes
• Leverage home crowd to create intimidating atmosphere
• Utilize veteran experience (Sánchez, Azpilicueta) at crucial moments
• Keep Aspas quiet and deny him service

The Andalusians could sneak a narrow victory. However, given their offensive struggles (1.36 goals/match), even scoring once is challenging.

Celta's Upset Potential:

Don't completely discount Celta. Their 2-0 win at the Bernabéu proves they can produce special performances. If Swedberg replicates his Real Madrid heroics and Aspas finds magic, Celta could steal three points.

However, realistically, both teams will settle for a point. Neither wants to risk defeat.

Confidence Level: 7/10 for Draw, 8/10 for Under 2.5 Goals

Historical Context: Sevilla's Crisis

Sevilla's current predicament represents one of the most dramatic falls from grace in recent La Liga history. A club with six Europa League titles, multiple Copa del Rey triumphs, and regular European football now finds itself in a genuine relegation battle.

The reasons for Sevilla's decline are multifaceted:

1. Financial Mismanagement:
Years of overspending on transfers without corresponding revenue growth have created massive debt. The club has been forced to sell key players (Jules Koundé, Diego Carlos, etc.) without adequate replacements.

2. Managerial Instability:
The departure of Julen Lopetegui marked the end of stability. Multiple manager changes have disrupted team cohesion and tactical identity.

3. Aging Squad:
Recruiting aging veterans (Sánchez 35, Azpilicueta 35) on free transfers instead of investing in younger talent has created a squad lacking dynamism and energy.

4. Loss of Identity:
Sevilla historically thrived on intensity, pressing, and European football experience. The current squad lacks these characteristics, looking lethargic and disjointed.

5. Fan Discontent:
In May 2025, Sevilla players were forced to spend the night at the training ground as angry supporters protested outside. This toxic atmosphere has affected morale and performances.

The club sacked Francisco García Pimienta in April 2025 after four consecutive La Liga defeats, bringing in Joaquin Almeyda. However, results haven't improved significantly, and relegation remains a genuine threat.

For a club of Sevilla's stature, dropping to the Segunda División would be catastrophic - financially, reputationally, and historically. Every match is now a battle for survival.

Celta Vigo's Resurgence Under Giráldez

While Celta also struggle, there are signs of improvement under Claudio Giráldez. The young Spanish coach (formerly Celta's B team manager) has brought tactical organization and belief to a squad that lacked confidence.

Key Improvements:

1. Defensive Structure:
The 3-4-3/5-3-2 system provides better defensive coverage than previous seasons. Carl Starfelt has been excellent since joining, forming a solid partnership in the back three.

2. Counter-Attacking Threat:
The 2-0 win at Real Madrid showcased Celta's ability to hurt elite opponents on the break. Williot Swedberg's pace and direct running make them dangerous in transition.

3. Veteran Leadership:
Iago Aspas at 37 remains crucial, providing goals, assists, and leadership when needed. His experience in tight games could prove invaluable in relegation battles.

4. Smart Recruitment:
Signings like Bryan Zaragoza (Bayern loan) and Borja Iglesias (free from Betis) added quality without breaking the bank. The club's scouting and recruitment deserve credit.

5. Youth Integration:
Giráldez isn't afraid to use young players, creating a balanced squad with youth and experience.

However, Celta's Achilles' heel remains consistency. Seven draws in 16 matches show they can compete but struggle to convert performances into wins. Too many points dropped from winning positions.

For Nigerian football fans, Celta represents a club punching above its weight - operating on a limited budget but producing competitive performances through smart management and tactical discipline.

The January Transfer Window Factor

Both clubs will be active in the January transfer window, desperately seeking reinforcements for their relegation battles.

Sevilla's Targets:

• Fran Beltrán (Celta Vigo) - Ironically pursuing opponent's midfielder
• Ersin Destanoğlu (24, Turkish GK) - Goalkeeper target
• Facundo Gulli - Forward option being scouted
• Potential exits for aging players to free wages

Celta Vigo's Situation:

• May lose Fran Beltrán to Sevilla
• Interest from clubs for Óscar Mingueza (West Ham, Aston Villa, Newcastle, Marseille)
• Potential loan deals for young players needing game time
• Budget constraints limit major signings

The irony of Sevilla targeting Celta's midfielder ahead of their direct clash adds extra spice to this fixture. Beltrán will be desperate to impress potential suitors while helping Celta secure crucial points.

Final Thoughts

This La Liga clash represents more than just three points - it's a psychological battle between two historic clubs fighting to avoid humiliation. Both Sevilla and Celta Vigo sit on 16 points, making this a genuine six-pointer in the relegation battle.

The smart money is on a low-scoring draw. Neither team has the form, confidence, or attacking quality to dominate. Expect a cagey, tense affair where mistakes are punished and quality moments from veterans (Aspas, Sánchez, Azpilicueta) could prove decisive.

For Nigerian football fans looking to bet on this match, Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 represents the best value. The Draw @ 3.20 is also excellent odds given both teams' circumstances. Avoid backing either team to win outright - the risk is too high given their inconsistency.

One thing is certain: both fanbases will be nervous throughout. Relegation would be catastrophic for either club, and the pressure is immense. Football at its most raw and emotional awaits at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.

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Expert Betting Tips for This Match:

• Best Value: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 (safest bet given both teams' struggles)
• Good Odds: Draw @ 3.20 (most likely outcome in relegation six-pointer)
• Conservative: Double Chance - Sevilla or Draw @ 1.45 (home advantage protection)
• Risky but Rewarding: Both Teams to Score - NO @ 1.95 (one team likely shuts up shop)
• Value Goalscorer: Iago Aspas Anytime @ 3.00 (veteran quality could shine through)
• Long Shot: Correct Score 1-1 @ 6.50 (excellent value for most likely scoreline)

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