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Arsenal vs. Newcastle United: EFL Match Preview, Odds & Prediction
On Tuesday night, Newcastle United will make a pit stop at the Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal in the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final. The two teams are out to make it two strikes in North London in as many days as possible. Eddie Howe's squad departed Tottenham Hotspur's soil with a 2-1 victory, but the Gunners could only manage a 1-1 draw with Brighton & Hove Albion on Saturday night.
Previous Matches and Head-to-head
Headers from the opposition have been lethal for Arsenal this season. Still, they had to relive an odd situation at the Amex Stadium when Brighton dented their Premier League championship hopes with a goal that came from within their box.
After a goal by 17-year-old sensation Ethan Nwaneri, who added another chapter to Arsenal's history, the game took a turn when William Saliba was sent off for a 'headbutt' on Brighton striker Joao Pedro. Pedro then set up David Raya for the losing penalty.
The Gunners could quickly find themselves eleven points behind Liverpool if the Reds win their two outstanding matches. Arteta and Fabian Hurzeler, predictably, had different opinions on the penalty incident. Still, both sides should have agreed that Brighton looked the more likely to score again as the second half wore on.
The Gunners had won 13 in a row across all competitions, including the EFL Cup (a run that included a 3-2 victory against Crystal Palace in the previous round, inspired by Gabriel Jesus), so there is some silver lining to Saturday's disappointing tie.
The Gunners have not lost a home game this season and have advanced to the final of the EFL Cup twice in the last three years. Their lone setback came in their most recent two-legged match against Liverpool in 2021-22, but other than that, they have been hunting for their first League Cup since 1993.
While Arsenal's League Cup haul isn't much to brag about, Newcastle has still not won the tournament and might go 70 years without a major trophy (if the 2005–06 Intertoto Cup is considered noteworthy).
Even though Manchester United were too strong in the 2022–23 final, Howe's squad hasn't let up since their big-money takeover. However, the day will soon come when the Magpies can celebrate this new era with a dazzling trophy.
The current crop under Howe has already eliminated AFC Wimbledon, Brentford, Chelsea, and Nottingham Forest from the tournament. Therefore, Tuesday's visitors will return to North London with even more confidence than they had before.
The Champions League hopes to beat Spurs 2-1 on Saturday lunchtime with two goals from Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak. It was their sixth victory in a row in all competitions, and they scored in eight consecutive games.
Although it hasn't happened since 2010, Newcastle has made it a habit to visit the Emirates and come out on top. This trend began when the Magpies beat Arsenal 1-0 in their first Premier League match at St. James' Park.
Arsenal x Newcastle United Team News
Many thought that Arteta's late booking for time-wasting was to blame for replacing goalscorer Nwaneri at halftime in the Brighton draw, so the "really bad" news that the 17-year-old had a muscle injury was confirmed by the Arsenal boss at full time.
Even though Nwaneri is still in the running for the first leg, his availability is in severe question due to the short turnaround; similarly, Kai Havertz is in a similar situation, having missed back-to-back games due to sickness, and must show his health within the next 48 hours.
Among the remaining injured players are Bukayo Saka (hamstring), Raheem Sterling (knee), Ben White (knee), and Takehiro Tomiyasu (knee). However, Sterling may be able to play in the FA Cup first round against Manchester United this coming weekend. At the same time, Jurrien Timber is eligible again after serving a yellow-card suspension.
While one important Arsenal player serves a suspension, two vital players for Newcastle—Fabián Schar and Bruno Guimaraes—will miss the first leg due to competition-specific sanctions for receiving their second yellow cards of the EFL Cup season in Brentford's victory.
Along with Emil Krafth (shoulder), Nick Pope (knee), Callum Wilson (thigh), and Jamaal Lascelles (knee), Schar and Guimaraes are also out with injuries. However, Sven Botman's forced substitution in the Spurs' win was reportedly due to cramps.
Nevertheless, it is unexpected to see the Dutchman making consecutive starts so soon after recovering from an ACL injury. Lloyd Kelly may perhaps replace Schar in this situation, while Sean Longstaff and Joe Willock, a former Gunner, would compete to replace Guimaraes.
Our predictions
Full time draw @ 3.85 on Sky247.ng
Howe may be tempted to take a more cautious approach with Schar and the powerful Guimaraes watching helplessly at the Emirates, but setting up to defend has worked for Newcastle previously (see the 0-0 draw in January 2023).
Although Arsenal seldom loses battles at the Emirates and continues to find ways to score despite Saka's absence, the goal-loving Magpies should not play every available attacker when their offensive three is performing at such a high level.
By all accounts, a low-scoring draw seems like the most likely outcome in the first leg, which would be a welcome improvement for the Magpies heading into the rematch on February 5 at St. James' Park.
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