ATP Madrid: Jan-Lennard Struff Vs Carlos Alcaraz Predictions and Betting Tips (30/04/2024)

On Tuesday, April 30, 2024, second seed Carlos Alcaraz will face Jan-Lennard Struff in the fourth round of the Mutua Madrid Open in a rematch of the tournament's championship match from the previous year.

Alcaraz, who suffered a right arm injury that sidelined him for the Monte Carlo Masters and the Barcelona Open, put all apprehensions to bed in Madrid with a commanding victory over Ukrainian youth prodigy Alexander Shevchenko to open his title defence. With only three games lost, he defeated his opponent 6-1, 6-2 in just one hour and eight minutes.

Round three saw him maintain his impressive form, defeating Brazilian Thiago Seyboth Wild 6-3, 6-3. He defeated his opponent's serve four times in the six opportunities presented and amassed 87% of the points with his first.

Struff, meanwhile, entered the competition having won his first-ever ATP tour title in the Bavarian International, a summit match in which he defeated American Taylor Fritz.

His campaign in the Spanish capital began with a decisive 6-1, 7-5 victory over Jaume Munar, a city native. In the third round, facing thirteenth seed Ugo Humbert, Struff overcame a challenging opening set to secure a 7-5, 6-4 victory. Struff demonstrated exemplary service prowess, securing victories of 88% points after his second serve and 76% points after his first.

Head-to-Head and Previous Matches

Struff has an 11-3 record on clay, with one tournament victory the previous year. Over the past year, Struff has recorded 26.0% of his return games and 82.6% of his service games on clay. Off converted 44 of 116 break points (37.9%) on clay.

In the previous twelve months, on April 21, Struff advanced to the round of 16 in his most recent competition, the BMW Open, where he outlasted No. 15-ranked Taylor Fritz 7-5, 6-3.

In the previous year, Alcaraz secured a victory at a clay tournament, accumulating a 13-4 record in matches played on that surface.

Alcaraz's service probability in games played on clay surfaces is 83.1%, while his return percentage is 38.3%.

With a record of 70-for-167 on clay surfaces, Alcaraz ranks 98th in breakpoint winning percentage (41.9%). Itau presented the Miami Open, Alcaraz's most recent tournament, on March 28, where he reached the quarterfinals. Grigor Dimitrov, ranked No. 12, defeated Alcaraz 2-6, 4-6.

Our Predictions

Carlos Alcaraz in three sets

Although Carlos Alcaraz enters his about against Jan Lennard-Struff as the favourite, a surprising performance from the hard-hitting German cannot be ruled out. Recently, both athletes have been in excellent form. Alcaraz appeared mesmerizing on both wings and the serve, conceding only nine runs in his combined matches. Although the Spaniard has been absent from action for the past few weeks, he appears as fit as ever and poses a formidable challenge to any opponent.

Struff appeared to have carried over his outstanding performance from Munich last week to Madrid. He made quick work of his first match and demonstrated exceptional finishing prowess in the second round to tally up impressive victories.

Enthusiasts can anticipate a riveting rematch of the event's championship match from the previous year, as both competitors deliver high-intensity contests. Although Alcaraz is expected to prevail, Struff has a significant opportunity if he serves well and establishes early pressure on the Alcaraz serve. It could come down to who executes the crucial moments with greater clinical precision, an area in which Alcaraz has demonstrated his prowess throughout his brief career.