Atletico Madrid vs Club Brugge Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | UCL Play-off – 24 February 2026

Match Overview: Everything Still to Play For

When Atletico Madrid and Club Brugge meet at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Monday evening, it will be with everything still to play for. The first leg in Bruges on Wednesday 18 February ended 1–1 — a result that keeps both sides fully alive in this knockout round play-off tie. With the away goals rule now abolished, this second leg is a straight shootout: whoever wins on the night progresses to the round of 16. A draw after 90 minutes would force extra time, and potentially penalties.

For Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid, this is a season-defining moment. Los Rojiblancos have been wildly inconsistent domestically — brilliant one week (4–0 thrashing of Barcelona in the Copa del Rey semi-final first leg), catastrophically poor the next (0–3 defeat at Rayo Vallecano). Their Champions League campaign has mirrored that volatility: they finished 14th in the expanded league phase with 13 points from eight matches, avoiding elimination but falling short of automatic qualification for the last 16. The pressure on Simeone, now in his 14th season at the club, is mounting. Failure to progress past Brugge — a side Atletico should, on paper, comfortably beat — would be viewed as a crisis.

For Club Brugge, this tie represents the chance to achieve something remarkable. Ivan Leko's side finished 19th in the league phase with 10 points — one place and three points worse than Atletico — but have shown resilience in recent weeks. Domestically, Brugge have won four of their last five matches, including a crucial 2–1 win over local rivals Cercle Brugge in their most recent outing. That momentum, combined with the knowledge that they held Atletico to a 1–1 draw in the first leg, gives them genuine belief that an upset is possible in Madrid.

First Leg Analysis: A Balanced Stalemate in Bruges

The opening 90 minutes in Bruges provided few conclusive answers about which side holds the upper hand in this tie. Atletico dominated possession — as expected given their superior technical quality — but struggled to convert territorial advantage into clear-cut chances. Club Brugge's system focuses on speed and rapid transitions, making them a tough, unpredictable opponent, and that tactical approach frustrated Simeone's side throughout the first leg.

Julian Alvarez scored four goals in seven Champions League appearances this season, and the Argentine was Atletico's most threatening attacker in Bruges. Hans Vanaken — Club Brugge's captain with 545 appearances and 148 goals since 2015 — provided the creative heartbeat for the hosts, orchestrating their attacks with his trademark late runs into the box and intelligent positioning between the lines. Carlos Forbs scored twice against Barcelona in this Champions League campaign and was a constant threat down Brugge's left flank before being forced off with an injury.

The key tactical battle in the first leg was Atletico's attempts to break down Brugge's compact defensive block. Simeone's side struggled to find space in the final third, with Brugge sitting deep and inviting pressure before launching rapid counters. That pattern is likely to be flipped in the second leg — with Atletico at home, Brugge may be forced to come out and engage higher up the pitch, potentially opening up spaces for Alvarez, Lookman and Sorloth to exploit.

Recent Form Guide

🔴⚪ Atletico Madrid – Last 5 Competitive Matches

Atletico arrive following a heavy 3-0 La Liga defeat away to Rayo Vallecano on 15 February — a result that left Simeone furious and raised serious questions about his side's mentality. Before that embarrassment, however, Atletico had been in excellent form: they recorded an emphatic 4-0 victory over Barcelona in the Copa del Rey semi-final first leg, a performance that showcased the potential of this squad when everything clicks. Their final league-phase outing in the Champions League ended in a 2-1 home defeat to Bodo/Glimt, further underlining the unpredictability that has defined their European campaign. The inconsistency is maddening for Simeone — his team can destroy Barcelona one week and capitulate to Rayo Vallecano the next.

🔵⚫ Club Brugge – Last 5 Competitive Matches

Club Brugge head into this contest having won four of their last five matches in all competitions, including a notable 3-0 victory over Marseille in their last Champions League group-stage game. Their most recent outing was a hard-fought 2–1 victory over Cercle Brugge in the Belgian Pro League derby on 15 February, a result that keeps them firmly in the domestic title race. Ivan Leko replaced Nicky Hayen as manager in December, and his impact has been transformative — Brugge look more structured defensively and more dangerous on the counter. Domestically, they are flying. In Europe, they have proven they can compete with the continent's elite.

Team News & Injury Report

🔴⚪ Atletico Madrid – Injury & Availability List

Atletico Madrid heads to Bruges for the Champions League without Nico González and Pablo Barrios due to injury — and that midfield crisis remains Simeone's biggest concern heading into the second leg. Simeone admitted: "There's no substitute for Pablo. Johnny's injury hurts us", highlighting how important those absences are to his plans. Pablo Barrios — arguably Atletico's most important midfielder this season — picked up a right thigh injury in early February and is expected to be sidelined for close to a month. Without him, Atletico lack the ball-winning quality and positional discipline that makes Simeone's system function. Nicolás González is also unavailable as he continues his recovery from a muscle problem in his thigh, which is expected to sideline him until around March.

The good news: Julian Alvarez and Alexander Sorloth are in line to start and should lead the front line from the first whistle. Sorloth's medical tests ruled out fractures and cranial hematomas after the trauma suffered during the match against Levante, and the Norwegian striker is expected to be fully fit. Antoine Griezmann is likely to be kept in reserve and could come off the bench if Simeone needs extra creativity or a late goal — the Frenchman has suffered a relapse of his right thigh injury and is being managed carefully.

🔵⚫ Club Brugge – Injury & Availability List

Club Brugge's injury list is extensive and damaging. The biggest blow is Carlos Forbs, who was absent from training on Tuesday and did individual work, with coach Ivan Leko saying "it doesn't look great, but we still hope the medical staff can get him match-ready". Forbs is a product of Manchester City and Ajax, who already netted twice against Barcelona in this Champions campaign, and his creativity, pace and goal threat from the left wing make him irreplaceable. Without him, Brugge lose their most dangerous attacking outlet.

Goalkeeper Simon Mignolet, a Belgian international and former nightmare for Atletico, has returned to the starting XI after dealing with injuries this season — though his fitness remains uncertain for this second leg. Both senior goalkeepers, Simon Mignolet and Nordin Jackers, have been sidelined in recent weeks, forcing Dani van den Heuvel to continue in goal during their heaviest defeats. If Mignolet is passed fit, his experience and shot-stopping ability will be crucial. In midfield, the absences of Onyedika and Reis strip Brugge of physicality and ball progression quality.

Predicted Lineups

Simeone's selection will depend on whether he opts for a back three or back four. His preferred system in high-stakes European ties is the 3-5-2, with Molina and Ruggeri operating as wing-backs to provide width. Without Barrios, Koke and Llorente must anchor the midfield — a pairing that offers experience and tactical intelligence but lacks the physicality and ball-winning aggression that Barrios provides. Julian Alvarez is the key man in attack, supported by either Sorloth or Lookman depending on whether Simeone plays two strikers or opts for a 4-2-3-1 with Lookman in behind.

For Brugge, the big question is who replaces Forbs on the left wing. Mamadou Diakhon offers pace and directness but lacks Forbs' end product. Hans Vanaken remains the creative hub, operating as a No.10 behind striker Nicolò Tresoldi. Aleksandar Stanković, son of Inter Milan legend Dejan Stanković, is already a regular starter at just 20, contributing four goals in 21 league appearances this season — his composure at the base of midfield will be crucial in withstanding Atletico's pressure.

Head-to-Head Record

Recent Head-to-Head Meetings

Atletico de Madrid have faced Club Brugge a total of eight times. The meetings have ended with three wins for Atletico, two draws and three defeats. The record is perfectly balanced, and recent history shows Brugge have been more than a match for the Spanish giants. The last time they faced Club Brugge, in October 2022, the match ended in a goalless draw. Before that, Brugge won 2–0 at home in September 2022 — a result that contributed to Atletico finishing bottom of their Champions League group that season. Atletico's most recent victory against the Belgian side came on October 3, 2018: a 3–1 win with two goals from Griezmann and one from Koke.

Historically, the Belgians have also eliminated Atlético in the 1991-92 European Cup Winners' Cup and the 1978 European Cup, making them a consistently tough opponent. This H2H record underlines a simple truth: Atletico cannot take Brugge lightly. The Belgians have proven, time and again, that they can match Simeone's side.

Key Battles to Watch

Tactical Analysis & Match Verdict

The tactical dynamic of this second leg will be fundamentally different from the first. In Bruges, Atletico controlled possession but struggled to break down a deep-lying defensive block. At the Metropolitano, with the tie level and the pressure to progress, Simeone will demand his side show more attacking intent and urgency. That should create a more open game — and potentially play into Brugge's hands if they can withstand the early storm and hit Atletico on the counter.

Simeone stressed the importance of competing with intensity in a tournament where every detail can make the difference: "The objective is to get through this round, reach the next stage, and from there go step by step as far as we can." He also praised Brugge, describing them as a solid team with a clear identity, highlighting their high pressing, attacking speed, and strong home performances. This is not a coach who is underestimating the opposition.

The key for Atletico is solving the Pablo Barrios problem. Without their best ball-winning midfielder, Koke and Llorente must control the midfield against a Brugge side that will look to press high and force turnovers. If Atletico can establish territorial dominance in the first 30 minutes — pinning Brugge back and forcing them to defend deep — the quality of Alvarez, Lookman and potentially Griezmann off the bench should be enough to find the decisive goals. But if Brugge weather that early pressure and grow into the game, the tie could go to extra time or penalties — a scenario that heavily favours the underdog.

The absence of Carlos Forbs is a significant blow to Brugge's counter-attacking threat. Brugge have gone 207 minutes without scoring in the Champions League in recent weeks, though that drought ended in the first leg. Without Forbs' pace and directness, Brugge will rely even more heavily on Vanaken's creativity and Tzolis' ability to exploit space in behind. If Atletico's defence — marshalled by the experienced Giménez — can remain compact and disciplined, Brugge may struggle to create high-quality chances.

Our verdict: Atletico win 2–1 on the night, progressing 3–2 on aggregate. Home advantage, superior quality and the pressure of needing to progress should be enough for Simeone's side. But it will be tense, nervy and closer than Atletico would like — Brugge will score, and this tie could easily go to extra time if Atletico are not clinical in the first half.

Our Expert Prediction

We predict Atletico Madrid 2–1 Club Brugge on the night (3–2 on aggregate). Home advantage at the Metropolitano, combined with the quality of Alvarez and Lookman, should be enough for Simeone's side to edge this tie. Brugge will score — they have proven capable of threatening elite defences this season — but Atletico's need to progress and the pressure of playing at home should drive them to victory. Expect a tense, nervy encounter that could easily have gone to extra time if Brugge's finishing was sharper. Both teams to score is a strong value bet at ~2.10 odds.

Top 6 Betting Tips: Atletico Madrid vs Club Brugge

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