Juventus vs Benfica Prediction & Betting Tips | UEFA Champions League 21/01/2026

Match Details

Competition: UEFA Champions League 2025/26 - League Phase (Matchday 7)
Date: Tuesday, January 21, 2026
Kick-off Time: 21:00 CET (20:00 GMT / 15:00 ET)
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Turin, Italy
Referee: TBC

Current Form & Champions League Standings

Juventus - 14th Place (9 Points - Playoff Zone)

Luciano Spalletti's Juventus are navigating a season of two contrasts. In Serie A, the Bianconeri sit in 5th place (29 points), having won their last 3 matches including a crucial 2-0 victory over Pisa on December 28th. However, their Champions League campaign has been inconsistent.

After 6 matchdays, Juventus sit in 14th position with 9 points (2-3-1 record, +2 goal difference). Their most recent UCL fixture saw them beat Pafos 2-0 on December 10th, keeping their playoff hopes alive. However, they suffered a thrilling but disappointing 4-4 draw with Borussia Dortmund in September, showing defensive vulnerabilities.

Champions League Form: W-L-D-W-D-W (last 6 matches)
Home Record: Solid at Allianz Stadium
Goals Scored: 1.67 goals per UCL match
Goals Conceded: Defensive issues remain

Key Points:

• Must finish in top 24 to qualify for playoffs
• Currently in playoff qualification zone (positions 9-24)
• Need points to avoid dropping into elimination spots

Benfica - 23rd Place (6 Points - Brink of Elimination)

José Mourinho's Benfica return has been eventful. After being sacked by Fenerbahce in August 2025 following a Champions League playoff defeat to... Benfica (ironically), Mourinho signed a 2-year deal with the Portuguese giants on September 18, 2025, returning after 25 years.

In the Champions League, Benfica are in desperate trouble, sitting in 23rd position with just 6 points (2-0-4 record, -2 goal difference). Their most recent UCL match saw them beat Napoli 2-0 on December 10th, briefly reviving their hopes. However, they earlier suffered defeats to Ajax (0-2), Chelsea (0-1), and a shocking home loss to Qarabag (2-3).

Champions League Form: L-L-W-L-L-W (last 6 matches)
Away Record: Struggling on travels
Goals Scored: 1.17 goals per UCL match
Goals Conceded: Defensive fragility exposed

Liga Portugal Position: 3rd place, 8 points behind leaders Porto

Mourinho's Mission:

• Must win remaining 2 matches (Juventus away, Real Madrid home) to have any playoff chance
• Currently on 8-game unbeaten streak domestically
• Achieved 750th career victory on December 18, 2025

Head-to-Head Record

This will be a historic first competitive meeting between Juventus and Benfica. These two European giants have never faced each other in official competition, making this Champions League encounter even more significant.

All-Time Record:

• Matches Played: 0
• This is their first-ever competitive fixture

What This Means:

• No psychological advantage for either side
• Tactical chess match between Spalletti and Mourinho
• Fresh rivalry between two storied European clubs
• No historical patterns to analyze

Both clubs boast rich European pedigree:

• Juventus: 2 Champions League titles (1985, 1996), multiple finalists
• Benfica: 2 European Cup titles (1961, 1962), former continental giants

This fixture represents a clash of philosophies: Spalletti's attacking approach versus Mourinho's reactive football.

Team News & Injuries

Juventus - Key Absences But Squad Recovering

Luciano Spalletti faces some selection challenges but has most key players available:

Definitely Out:

• Federico Gatti (injury) - Defender unavailable, could return soon
• Daniele Rugani (injury) - Another defensive absence
• Juan Cabal (injury) - Left-back sidelined long-term

Recently Returned:

• Arkadiusz Milik - Back in squad after over a year out through injury
• Bremer - Brazilian defender recovered and featured vs Pisa
• Filip Kostić - Resurgent form after returning from Fenerbahce loan

Available Squad:

• Kenan Yildiz - Turkish wonderkid in excellent form, wants to be highest-paid player
• Randal Kolo Muani - On loan from PSG, potential game-changer
• Lois Openda - Forward signed from RB Leipzig
• Jonathan David - Canadian striker from Lille
• Edon Zhegrova - Winger making impact off bench
• Teun Koopmeiners - Dutch midfielder, key creative force
• Manuel Locatelli (captain) - Experienced midfielder leading the side
• Weston McKennie - American midfielder in good form
• Khéphren Thuram - French midfielder adding quality
• Andrea Cambiaso - Versatile wing-back
• Pierre Kalulu - French defender on loan from AC Milan
• Lloyd Kelly - Signed from Newcastle on loan
• Michele Di Gregorio / Mattia Perin - Goalkeeping options

Transfer Speculation:

• Davide Frattesi (Inter) - Juventus pursuing wantaway midfielder
• Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (Tottenham) - January target
• Sandro Tonali (Newcastle) - Dream signing but difficult
• Perin to Genoa - Goalkeeper pushing for move to get regular football

Benfica - Mourinho's Injury Headaches

José Mourinho faces significant absences ahead of this crucial away fixture:

Definitely Out:

• Alexander Bah (ACL) - Right-back out for season, major loss
• Bruma (Achilles tendon) - Long-term injury
• Dodi Lukebakio (ankle) - €20m summer signing from Sevilla unavailable
• Florentino (on loan at Burnley) - Midfielder not available

Available Key Players:

• Vangelis Pavlidis - Greek striker, joint top scorer in Liga Portugal (10 goals)
• Franjo Ivanović - €22m striker from Union Saint-Gilloise
• Ángel Di María - Argentine legend still producing magic at 36
• Georgiy Sudakov - Ukrainian wonderkid on loan from Shakhtar Donetsk
• Richard Ríos - Colombian midfielder signed from Palmeiras for €27m
• Enzo Barrenechea - On loan from Aston Villa, now completing permanent move
• Andreas Schjelderup - Norwegian winger attracting interest from Bologna
• Leandro Barreiro - Key midfielder
• Fredrik Aursnes - Norwegian international
• Samuel Dahl - Swedish left-back
• Amar Dedić - Right-back option
• Nicolás Otamendi (captain) - 36-year-old Argentine veteran defender
• António Silva - 22-year-old center-back linked with Liverpool
• Anatoliy Trubin - Ukrainian goalkeeper

Mourinho's Transfer Interest:

• Filip Kostić (Juventus) - Wants to reunite with Serbian winger from Fenerbahce days
• Paulo Dybala (Roma) - Salary obstacle
• Nilson Angulo (Anderlecht) - Scouting

Predicted Lineups

Juventus (4-2-3-1)

GK: Di Gregorio
DEF: Cambiaso, Bremer, Kalulu, Kelly
MID: Locatelli (c), McKennie
ATT: Yildiz, Koopmeiners, Zhegrova
ST: Kolo Muani

Benfica (4-3-3)

GK: Trubin
DEF: Dedić, Otamendi (c), Silva, Dahl
MID: Barreiro, Ríos, Aursnes
FWD: Schjelderup, Pavlidis, Di María

Tactical Analysis

Juventus' Approach

Luciano Spalletti has rejuvenated Juventus since taking over from the sacked Igor Tudor in October 2025. The Italian tactician is implementing a more proactive, possession-based style compared to previous managers, while maintaining defensive solidity.

Expect Juventus to:

1. Control possession (55-60%) through Locatelli and Koopmeiners
2. Utilize Yildiz's creativity and dribbling to unlock Benfica's defense
3. Press high to disrupt Benfica's buildup play
4. Exploit wing-backs Cambiaso pushing forward to create overloads
5. Target set-pieces with aerial presence (Bremer, Kalulu)

The key for Juventus is converting dominance into goals. They've struggled with clinical finishing in Europe this season, despite creating chances. Kolo Muani and Openda provide different options - the Frenchman offers physicality and hold-up play, while the Belgian brings pace and runs in behind.

Against Mourinho's defensive structure, patience will be crucial. Juventus must avoid frustration and maintain composure when breaking down a compact Benfica block.

Benfica's Strategy

José Mourinho will set up exactly as expected - reactive, defensively solid, and looking to exploit transitions. The Special One has implemented his trademark pragmatism at Benfica, prioritizing defensive organization over attacking flair.

Benfica's game plan:

1. Sit in a compact 4-5-1/4-3-3 defensive shape
2. Deny space in behind for Juventus' attackers
3. Use Di María's experience and Sudakov's vision on counter-attacks
4. Pavlidis as lone striker, holding up play and bringing others into transitions
5. Exploit Juventus' defensive vulnerabilities through quick breaks

Mourinho knows how to win away in Europe. His record speaks for itself - Champions League titles with Porto and Inter came through mastering away performances. Expect Benfica to absorb pressure for long periods, frustrate the home crowd, and pounce on any mistakes.

The Portuguese tactician will also implement gamesmanship - time-wasting, tactical fouls, and psychological warfare. Spalletti must ensure his players don't lose their composure.

This match represents vintage Mourinho: backs against the wall, must-win scenario, facing a superior opponent away from home. History suggests he thrives in these circumstances.

Key Battles

Kenan Yildiz vs Nicolás Otamendi

The 19-year-old Turkish sensation faces the 36-year-old Argentine veteran. Yildiz's pace, dribbling, and creativity will test Otamendi's experience and positioning. The defender's physical approach and tactical nous must neutralize one of Europe's brightest young talents.

This generational clash could determine the match. If Yildiz finds space between lines, Juventus will create chances. If Otamendi dominates physically and denies him the ball, Benfica can frustrate the home side.

Manuel Locatelli vs Richard Ríos

The midfield battle between two captains. Locatelli's passing range and defensive positioning versus Ríos' energy and box-to-box capabilities. Whoever controls this duel likely controls the match tempo.

Ríos' €27m signing from Palmeiras has been crucial under Mourinho, providing the engine room intensity the manager demands. Locatelli must match his work rate while dictating play.

Randal Kolo Muani vs António Silva

If Kolo Muani starts, the PSG loanee's physical presence will test Silva's composure. The 22-year-old Portuguese defender (linked with Liverpool) must prove he belongs at Europe's top table by containing one of France's most dangerous strikers.

Silva's reading of the game and recovery pace will be crucial. Kolo Muani thrives on crosses and through balls - denying service is as important as winning physical duels.

Ángel Di María vs Andrea Cambiaso

The 36-year-old Argentine wizard still possesses magic. His experience in big European nights could be decisive. Cambiaso must balance attacking duties with defensive responsibilities against one of the game's great playmakers.

Di María's movement between lines and set-piece delivery make him Benfica's most dangerous weapon. If he finds space, Juventus' defense will be tested.

Betting Tips & Predictions

Main Prediction: Juventus to Win

Recommended Bet: Juventus to Win @ 1.70 odds

Despite Mourinho's defensive expertise, Juventus' home advantage, superior squad depth, and Benfica's desperate situation make the Bianconeri favorites. Expect a cagey affair, but Juventus should edge it.

Alternative Betting Options

Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75

• Mourinho's Benfica averaging just 1.17 goals per UCL match
• Defensive masterclass expected from The Special One
• Juventus solid at home, patient buildup
• Benfica must be cautious - cannot afford heavy defeat
• 80% of Benfica's UCL away games this season Under 2.5

Both Teams to Score - NO @ 1.90

• Benfica struggled for goals in Europe (6 goals in 6 matches)
• Mourinho prioritizes clean sheets away from home
• Juventus defensively solid with Bremer back
• One team likely keeps clean sheet in cautious affair
• Good value given circumstances

Juventus Win to Nil @ 2.80

• Mourinho may set up ultra-defensively to avoid embarrassment
• Benfica's attacking struggles in UCL
• Home crowd advantage at Allianz Stadium
• Excellent odds for likely scenario

Correct Score: 1-0 Juventus @ 6.50

• Classic Mourinho away performance could keep it tight
• Juventus struggle for goals in Europe
• Reflects cautious, cagey encounter
• Outstanding value at 6.50

Kenan Yildiz Anytime Goalscorer @ 3.50

• Turkish wonderkid in excellent form
• Primary creative threat for Juventus
• Has scored crucial goals this season
• Good value given his influence

Half-Time/Full-Time: Draw/Juventus @ 4.00

• Benfica will sit deep early, frustrating Juventus
• Home side likely need second half to break deadlock
• Common pattern in Mourinho away matches
• Excellent value bet

Match Statistics to Watch

Possession Battle

Expect Juventus to dominate possession (65-70%), with Benfica compact and organized defensively.

Shots on Target

Juventus should have significantly more attempts (12-15 shots vs 3-5 for Benfica), but Di María's quality means every Benfica chance dangerous.

Tactical Fouls & Cards

Mourinho's teams employ cynical fouls to break momentum. Expect 5-7 yellow cards total, possible red card.

Set Pieces

Both teams dangerous from dead balls. Juventus' aerial presence vs Benfica's defensive organization. Could be decisive.

Expert Verdict

This UEFA Champions League clash represents one of football's great tactical storylines: Spalletti's possession football against Mourinho's reactive masterclass. With both teams needing points desperately (Juventus for playoff seeding, Benfica for survival), expect a tense, tactical battle.

Final Score Prediction: Juventus 1-0 Benfica

The key factors:

1. Home advantage at Allianz Stadium with passionate Juventini support
2. Mourinho's backs-against-the-wall mentality in must-win away fixture
3. Squad quality differential - Juventus deeper and more talented
4. First-ever meeting creates tactical intrigue and uncertainty
5. Benfica's UCL struggles (just 6 points from 6 matches, -2 GD)
6. Kenan Yildiz's creative brilliance vs Otamendi's experience
7. Mourinho's defensive expertise keeping it tight
8. Juventus' home form and desperate need for playoff points

Why Juventus Will Win:

Juventus possess superior individual quality throughout the squad. Yildiz, Koopmeiners, Kolo Muani, and Openda provide attacking threats Benfica cannot match. At home, with the Allianz Stadium crowd behind them, Juventus should have enough quality to break down Mourinho's defensive structure.

Spalletti's tactical acumen has transformed Juventus into genuine Serie A contenders again. The team's confidence is growing, exemplified by their 3-game winning streak domestically. Against a Benfica side struggling in Europe, they should prevail.

The psychological factor also favors Juventus. They're at home, in form, and facing a Benfica team on the brink of Champions League elimination. That desperation can work both ways - it might inspire brilliance or create panic.

Why Benfica Could Cause an Upset:

Never underestimate José Mourinho in knockout scenarios. The Special One has made a career of producing defensive masterclasses away from home against superior opponents. His Porto and Inter Champions League triumphs were built on exactly these situations.

If Benfica can keep it 0-0 for 60-70 minutes, frustration will creep into Juventus' play. One moment of magic from Di María or a clinical finish from Pavlidis on the counter could steal three vital points.

Mourinho's 8-game unbeaten streak domestically shows Benfica have regained confidence and organization. His tactical adjustments against Napoli (2-0 win) proved he still possesses the ability to outcoach elite opponents.

Additionally, Benfica have nothing to lose. Already facing near-elimination, they can play with freedom and take risks. Juventus, needing points for playoff seeding, might play cautiously and invite pressure.

Most Likely Scenario:

A cagey 1-0 Juventus victory seems most probable. Mourinho will set up defensively, making it extremely difficult for Juventus to break through. The home side will dominate possession but struggle to create clear chances against Benfica's compact shape.

A moment of individual brilliance - likely from Yildiz or a set-piece - will decide the match. Benfica will threaten occasionally on the counter, but lack the attacking quality to truly hurt Juventus.

The match will be decided by fine margins, tactical discipline, and perhaps a controversial refereeing decision. In these tight European affairs, home advantage often proves decisive.

Confidence Level: 7/10 for Juventus victory, 9/10 for Under 2.5 Goals

Historical Context: Mourinho's European Mastery

José Mourinho's Champions League pedigree is undeniable. The Portuguese tactician has won the competition twice (Porto 2004, Inter 2010) and reached three finals, establishing himself among Europe's elite managers.

Mourinho's UCL Record:

• 750 career victories as of December 18, 2025
• Only manager to win European Cup/Champions League with two different clubs outside the traditional giants
• Also won UEFA Cup (Porto 2003), Europa League (Man United 2017), and Conference League (Roma 2022)
• Completed clean sweep of all three current UEFA club competitions

His success stems from tactical flexibility and ruthless pragmatism. Mourinho adapts his approach based on opponent and circumstances, prioritizing results over aesthetics. Against superior teams away from home, he employs ultra-defensive tactics, compact shapes, and devastating counter-attacks.

The 2010 Champions League semi-final at Camp Nou epitomizes Mourinho's approach. Inter defended for 90 minutes against Barcelona's tiki-taka dominance, lost 1-0 on the night, but progressed 3-2 on aggregate. That tactical masterclass remains one of modern football's greatest defensive performances.

Now, at 62 years old, Mourinho finds himself in a similar situation - backs against the wall, facing a superior opponent away from home, needing a result to keep Champions League dreams alive. History suggests he relishes these challenges.

Spalletti's Juventus Revolution

Luciano Spalletti's appointment in October 2025 (replacing the sacked Igor Tudor) marked a new era for Juventus. The Italian tactician, who previously led Napoli to the Scudetto and managed the Italian national team, brings experience, tactical acumen, and a winning mentality.

Spalletti's Impact:

• Transformed Juventus from 15th to 5th in Serie A
• Implemented more attacking, possession-based football
• Restored confidence and belief throughout the squad
• Currently on 3-game winning streak domestically
• Kenan Yildiz thriving under his guidance

His philosophy emphasizes ball retention, pressing, and positional play. Unlike previous Juventus managers who prioritized defensive solidity, Spalletti encourages risk-taking and creativity. Yildiz's emergence as one of Europe's brightest young talents reflects this attacking freedom.

However, Spalletti's teams have occasionally been vulnerable to organized defensive units. Against Mourinho's reactive football, his patience and tactical adjustments will be tested. Can he break down Benfica's compact shape without leaving spaces for counter-attacks?

The Italian's experience in these tactical battles should serve him well. His Napoli side regularly dismantled defensive opponents through movement, rotation, and relentless pressure. If he replicates that approach, Juventus should prevail.

For Nigerian football fans, this tactical chess match between two of Europe's great minds represents the highest level of coaching artistry. Both managers have proven themselves across multiple countries and competitions, and their philosophies clash beautifully.

The Stakes: Playoff Qualification Drama

This match carries enormous implications for both clubs' Champions League campaigns:

For Juventus (14th, 9 points):

• Secure playoff qualification with victory
• Improve seeding for knockout phase
• Build momentum for Serie A title challenge
• Restore European credibility after mixed campaign
• Loss could see them drop toward elimination zone with one match remaining

For Benfica (23rd, 6 points):

• Must win to have any playoff hope
• Even with victory, need favorable results elsewhere
• Loss means certain elimination
• Would require beating Real Madrid at home in final match
• Mourinho's reputation on the line

The new Champions League format's complexity means every point matters. Teams in positions 9-24 qualify for playoffs, while positions 25-36 are eliminated. Both clubs currently in precarious positions, making this a genuine six-pointer.

Juventus, with home advantage and superior form, should secure the points. However, Benfica's desperation and Mourinho's tactical brilliance create uncertainty. One mistake, one moment of magic, one controversial decision could swing everything.

Final Thoughts

This historic first meeting between Juventus and Benfica promises tactical intrigue, European pedigree, and genuine stakes. Luciano Spalletti versus José Mourinho represents a clash of philosophies, generations, and approaches to the beautiful game.

The smart money is firmly on Juventus. Home advantage, superior squad depth, and better form make them clear favorites. However, dismissing Mourinho and Benfica would be foolish. The Special One has produced countless miracles in exactly these situations.

For Nigerian football fans looking to bet on this match, Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 represents the safest option. Both managers prioritize defensive solidity, and Benfica's attacking struggles suggest a low-scoring affair. Juventus to Win @ 1.70 offers decent value for those confident in the home side.

One thing is certain: this will be a cagey, tense, tactical battle decided by fine margins. European football at its most strategic and cerebral awaits at the Allianz Stadium.

The stage is set for another chapter in José Mourinho's remarkable European story. Can the 62-year-old tactical genius produce one more masterclass? Or will Luciano Spalletti's resurgent Juventus consign Benfica to Champions League elimination?

Tuesday night will provide answers.

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Expert Betting Tips for This Match:

• Best Value: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 (safest bet - Mourinho's defensive approach)
• Good Odds: Juventus to Win @ 1.70 (home advantage, superior form)
• Conservative: Juventus Win to Nil @ 2.80 (Benfica's attacking struggles)
• Risky but Rewarding: Correct Score 1-0 Juventus @ 6.50 (classic Mourinho away match)
• Tactical Bet: Both Teams to Score - NO @ 1.90 (defensive battle expected)
• Value Goalscorer: Kenan Yildiz Anytime @ 3.50 (Turkish wonderkid in form)

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