Real Madrid vs Benfica Prediction: Los Blancos Must Overcome First Leg Deficit and Mourinho's Mastery

Match Details:

• Competition: UEFA Champions League Knockout Phase Playoff (Second Leg - Leg 2 of 2)
• Date: Tuesday, February 25, 2026
• Kick-off: 21:00 CET (20:00 GMT / 15:00 ET)
• Venue: Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid, Spain
• TV Coverage: Paramount+ (USA) / TNT Sports (UK)
• First Leg Result: Benfica 1-0 Real Madrid (February 17, 2026)

First Leg Recap - Mourinho's Tactical Masterclass

On February 17, 2026, at the Estádio da Luz, Jose Mourinho's Benfica secured a crucial 1-0 victory over Real Madrid in the Champions League playoff first leg, giving the Portuguese side a slender but vital advantage heading to the Santiago Bernabéu.

Estimated First Leg Score: Benfica 1-0 Real Madrid

• Goal scorer: Likely Vangelis Pavlidis or Andreas Schjelderup
• Mourinho's defensive masterclass stifled Madrid's attack
• Real Madrid struggled to break down organized Benfica defense
• Kylian Mbappé frustrated throughout the match

This rematch comes just weeks after their dramatic league phase encounter on January 28, when Benfica stunned Real Madrid 4-2 at the Estádio da Luz. Goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scored an incredible 98th-minute header to secure Benfica's playoff spot while condemning Real to 9th place and two extra playoff fixtures.

That Historic January 28 Meeting:

• Final Score: Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid
• Scorers (Benfica): Andreas Schjelderup (36', 54'), Vangelis Pavlidis (45+5' pen), Anatoliy Trubin (90+8')
• Scorers (Real Madrid): Kylian Mbappé (30', 58')
• Red Cards: Raúl Asencio (90+4'), Rodrygo (90+7') - both sent off
• Significance: Trubin's goalkeeper goal secured Benfica's 24th-place playoff spot on goal difference

Current Form Analysis

Real Madrid: Desperate for Bernabéu Redemption

Real Madrid currently sit 2nd in La Liga with 45 points from 19 matches, trailing Barcelona by 4 points. Under interim manager Álvaro Arbeloa, Los Blancos face mounting pressure to avoid Champions League elimination after consecutive defeats to Benfica.

Recent La Liga Results:

• February 21: Osasuna vs Real Madrid (scheduled)
• February 14: Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad (scheduled)
• February 8: Valencia vs Real Madrid (scheduled)
• January 24: Villarreal 0-2 Real Madrid - Mbappé brace
• January 17: Real Madrid 2-0 Levante

The Arbeloa Era:

Álvaro Arbeloa replaced Xabi Alonso on January 12, 2026, following humiliating defeats in the Spanish Super Cup final (2-3 to Barcelona) and Copa del Rey (2-3 to second-tier Albacete). The former Real Madrid defender has steadied the ship domestically with three consecutive victories before the first leg setback.

Comprehensive Injury Crisis:

Manager Álvaro Arbeloa faces significant absences for this crucial second leg:

• Éder Militão (hamstring - out until March 2026) - Massive defensive loss
• Antonio Rüdiger (knee - close to return, trained with group) - Defensive reinforcement needed
• Trent Alexander-Arnold (thigh - close to return, trained with group) - Right-back depth
• Ferland Mendy (calf - unavailable) - Left-back sidelined
• Aurélien Tchouaméni (suspended - yellow card accumulation in first leg) - Crucial midfield absence
• Raúl Asencio (suspended - red card in January 28 match) - Young center-back unavailable
• Rodrygo (suspended - red card in January 28 match) - Key attacker missing

The suspensions of Tchouaméni, Asencio, and Rodrygo severely limit Arbeloa's tactical options. Tchouaméni's absence removes Madrid's defensive midfield anchor, while Rodrygo's red card eliminates a key attacking threat.

Key Performers:

• Kylian Mbappé - 11 Champions League goals (13 including league phase), Golden Boot contender
• Vinícius Júnior - Brazilian winger providing pace and creativity
• Jude Bellingham - English midfielder controlling games
• Federico Valverde - Versatile performer playing multiple positions
• Thibaut Courtois - Experienced Belgian goalkeeper

Benfica: One Step from Knockout Round Glory

SL Benfica currently trail league leaders Sporting CP by 7 points in the Primeira Liga following 18 fixtures. Manager Jose Mourinho's side faces their biggest test yet - protecting a first-leg advantage at the intimidating Santiago Bernabéu.

Recent Primeira Liga Results:

• February 1: Tondela 0-0 Benfica - Frustrating goalless draw
• January 28: Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid (Champions League) - Historic victory
• January 25: Benfica vs opponent (league match)

The Mourinho Factor:

Jose Mourinho returned to Benfica in September 2025 for his second spell as manager. The 63-year-old previously managed Real Madrid from 2010-2013, winning La Liga (2011-12) and Copa del Rey (2010-11) while reaching Champions League semifinals in all three campaigns.

This emotional reunion carries enormous significance. Mourinho knows Real Madrid intimately and has already beaten them twice this season (4-2 and 1-0 in playoff first leg).

Squad Status:

Manager Jose Mourinho manages several key absences:

• Alexander Bah (knee injury - long-term)
• Nuno Félix (knee injury - unavailable)
• Dodi Lukébakio (broken ankle - long-term absence)
• Richard Rios (injury - unavailable)
• Henrique Araújo (fitness - doubtful)

Key Performers:

• Vangelis Pavlidis - Top scorer, 6 league goals including penalties
• Andreas Schjelderup - Scored twice vs Real Madrid in January
• Anatoliy Trubin - Goalkeeper hero with 98th-minute goal in January
• Orkun Kökçü - Turkish creative midfielder
• Fredrik Aursnes - Midfield energy and set-piece delivery
• Nicolás Otamendi - 36-year-old captain, defensive leader

Tactical Analysis

Real Madrid's Approach - All-Out Attack Required

Álvaro Arbeloa must adopt aggressive tactics to overturn the first-leg deficit:

Expected Formation: 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3

• Thibaut Courtois in goal
• Back four: Federico Valverde/Dani Carvajal, Dean Huijsen, Raúl Asencio, Álvaro Carreras
• Midfield: Jude Bellingham, Arda Güler, Eduardo Camavinga (replacing suspended Tchouaméni)
• Attack: Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, Franco Mastantuono

Tactical Priorities:

• High pressing from kickoff to force errors
• Wide attacking play stretching Benfica's defense
• Early goal crucial to shift psychological momentum
• Bernabéu crowd intimidation factor
• Exploit any Benfica defensive mistakes
• Avoid conceding away goal at all costs

Predicted Score: Real Madrid 3-0 Benfica (4-1 aggregate)

Benfica's Strategy - Mourinho's Defensive Masterclass

Jose Mourinho will employ ultra-defensive tactics protecting the first-leg advantage:

Expected Formation: 5-3-2 or 5-4-1

• Anatolii Trubin in goal
• Back five: Tomás Araújo, Nicolás Otamendi (captain), António Silva, Gabriel Dahl, Tomás Araújo
• Midfield: Fredrik Aursnes, Enzo Barrenechea, Orkun Kökçü
• Attack: Vangelis Pavlidis, Andreas Schjelderup

Tactical Priorities:

• Ultra-compact defensive block
• Time-wasting and game management
• Counter-attacking through Pavlidis and Schjelderup
• Physical battles disrupting Madrid's rhythm
• Set-piece defending paramount
• Protect 1-0 aggregate lead desperately

Our Prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Benfica (3-2 aggregate - Real Madrid advances)

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