Galatasaray vs. AZ Alkmaar: Europa Preview, Odds & Prediction

Trailing by three goals from the first leg, Galatasaray faces an uphill battle as they welcome AZ Alkmaar to Istanbul on Thursday. They hope to overturn the deficit in their Europa League playoff decider. The winner of this tie will progress to the last 16, where they will face either Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur.

Previous Matches and Head-to-head

Despite Roland Sallai’s equalizer canceling out a stunning Sven Mijnans free kick in Alkmaar, Galatasaray ultimately suffered a 4-1 defeat, with Kaan Ayhan’s second-half red card proving to be a significant setback.

AZ capitalized on their numerical advantage, scoring twice more after Troy Parrott converted a penalty, leaving Gala with a steep climb in the return leg.

However, Okan Buruk’s team is no stranger to high-scoring performances, having netted three or more goals in six of their last seven European home matches. Their Europa League record at home is equally impressive, scoring at least three goals in their previous five games. With one of Europe's most passionate fan bases, Galatasaray will believe that a comeback is still within reach.

That said, their defensive frailties remain a concern. The Turkish side has conceded in each of their last 21 European matches, and another defensive lapse on Thursday would almost certainly end their hopes of advancing.

History does not favor them, either. In 57 previous instances where a team has lost the first leg of a Europa League knockout tie by three or more goals, only one has managed to progress. The sole exception was Valencia’s comeback against Basel in 2014, overturning a 3-0 first-leg deficit with a 5-0 win in extra time.

Galatasaray arrives at this clash after a 2-0 Super Lig victory over Çaykur Rizespor, after a previous league match against Adana Demirspor was abandoned following a protest walk-off.

Victor Osimhen, who bagged a brace in Rize, returns from his UEFA suspension and will provide a crucial attacking boost as the hosts look to defy the odds.

AZ, meanwhile, holds a commanding lead and has had the advantage of a weekend off from domestic football to prepare for this second leg.

Only Ajax has conceded fewer goals in the Eredivisie this season, though AZ has been slightly less resolute in Europe.

Their recent 4-3 comeback win over Ferencváros, where they were three goals down at halftime, highlights their attacking threat and shows vulnerability in defense.

With Galatasaray leading the Europa League scoring charts with 20 goals and AZ close behind in third place, this game could become an electrifying contest.

The Dutch side is on a four-match winning streak, including a KNVB Beker quarter-final victory sandwiched between league wins over Willem II and PEC Zwolle. Given their strong form, AZ will arrive in Istanbul full of belief that they can eliminate one of the tournament favorites.

Galatasaray x AZ Alkmaar Team News

Galatasaray will welcome back Davinson Sánchez, Lucas Torreira, and Victor Osimhen from suspension, with Osimhen leading the attack in the absence of Álvaro Morata (hamstring) and Mauro Icardi (ACL injury).

Yunus Akgün and Ismail Jakobs remain sidelined with muscular problems, while Kaan Ayhan is suspended following his red card in the first leg.

New signing Przemysław Frankowski, who assisted Osimhen against Rizespor, and Mario Lemina made their debuts in that match, but neither was included in Galatasaray’s updated UEFA squad list.

AZ will continue to be without Ruben van Bommel, Sem Westerveld, and Ibrahim Sadiq due to injuries, though Kristijan Belic returns from suspension.

Belic will compete with Kees Smit and Jordy Clasie to partner with Peer Koopmeiners in midfield. Smit, who scored against Galatasaray in the group stage, will want to make another impact.

In attack, Sven Mijnans will support Troy Parrott, who has been in prolific form, scoring 17 goals across all competitions this season, including three in his last three Europa League outings.

Our Prediction

Galatasaray to win & Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 on Sky247.ng

Galatasaray’s unbeaten 24-game domestic run has not translated into European consistency, with their home matches in the Europa League averaging 5.5 goals per game. That pattern could continue here.

Galatasaray failed to beat AZ in two previous meetings this season—a 1-1 draw in the group stage and last week’s 4-1 defeat—so a win at the third attempt will not be enough to keep Galatasaray in the tournament.

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