Naomi Osaka vs. Karolina Muchova: Match Prediction and Analysis

In Thursday's second-round match, former US Open winner Naomi Osaka will take against Karolina Muchova, who reached the semifinals last year.

The two-time winner advanced to a match against her Czech opponent on Tuesday, who overcame American Katie Volynets in straight sets after defeating Jelena Ostapenko.

Match preview

On Tuesday, in a match between two former Grand Slam winners, Osaka beat 2017 French Open champion Ostapenko 6-3, 6-2 to surpass the first round.

The Japanese superstar had previously competed in New York in the tournament's first round, losing to Danielle Collins in 2022; she came back to Queens hoping to erase that loss.

Now that she has accomplished that, the 26-year-old aims to break her major second-round elimination streak. She lost in the second round of the past two Slams, at Wimbledon and in Paris, and she also lost in the first round of her homecoming event to Australia.

In her most recent match, the Wild Card defeated Ostapenko, marking her first victory against a top-10 player in four years. She is eager to continue her winning streak and reach the third round of a Major for the first time since her run in Australia two years ago.

But to avoid losing in the second major round for the 88th time, the World No. 1 must contend with Muchova, another formidable opponent.

Returning to Queens, the player who reached the semi-finals last year hopes to repeat her greatest performance at the US Open, when she beat Coco Gauff in the previous four after bouncing back from first-round eliminations in 2021 and 2022.

After finishing 2023 as the world's number eight seed, the Czech player had wrist surgery and was out for over ten months. She didn't participate in the first major of 2024 until Wimbledon when she made a triumphant comeback.

After losing in the first round of the event at the Championships, the 28-year-old recovered to beat Volynets 6-3, 7-5 on Tuesday, earning her first Slam victory over a year and a spot in the global ranking 52.

Similar to Osaka, Muchova's form has been all over the place since coming back. Before Wimbledon, she made it to the quarterfinals in Eastbourne but lost in the first round at the Championships. Just before the Olympics in Paris, she went to the final of a clay court tournament in Palermo, but she lost in the first round.

In her comeback to hard-court play, she lost to Jessica Pegula in Cincinnati in the second round. This was just before the year's last major when she aspired to defeat a past champion and eliminate Osaka from the tournament.

Tournament so far

Naomi Osaka:

First round: vs. Jelena Ostapenko 6-3 6-2

Karolina Muchova:

First round: vs. Katie Volynets 6-3 7-5

Head To Head

Cincinnati Open (2020) - Round of 32: Osaka 6-7[5] 6-4 6- 2

Madrid Open (2021) - Round of 32: Muchova 6-1, 6-4, 3-6

Both women have met twice on the WTA Tour; the first encounter was a three-set thriller in Cincinnati four years ago, won by Osaka. Muchova evened the score the following year at the Madrid Open, winning in three sets.

Despite playing in a smaller sample size, Muchova has a better win percentage than Osaka this year, with seven victories and three defeats. Osaka's record is 18-15.

Our Prediction

Osaka to win in three sets on Sky247.ng

The last time these two players met on clay in Madrid was three years ago, and a lot has changed since then. Osaka took a break from tennis after having her daughter Shai, and Muchova, who reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2021, the finals at the French Open in 2023, and the US Open semi-finals last year battled a 10-month absence from the sport after wrist surgery.

The outcome of this second-round match might go away, but we're betting on the Japanese player, who was hoping to perform at her peak at the US Open, to win in three sets against her somewhat unprepared opponent.

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