Bournemouth vs Liverpool Prediction: Can the Cherries Capitalize on Reds' Injury Crisis?

Match Details:

• Competition: Premier League (Matchday 22)
• Date: Friday, January 24, 2026
• Kick-off: 17:30 GMT (12:30 PM ET)
• Venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
• TV Coverage: Sky Sports (UK) / Peacock, NBC (USA)

Current Form Analysis

Bournemouth: Finding Their Feet After Difficult Spell

AFC Bournemouth enter this fixture having finally ended an agonizing winless run that threatened to drag them deeper into relegation trouble. Currently sitting in 15th position with 26 points from 21 matches, the Cherries showed signs of life with a dramatic victory over Tottenham Hotspur.

Recent Results:

• FA Cup: Newcastle United 10-9 Bournemouth (Penalties - January 10)
• Premier League: Bournemouth 3-2 Tottenham Hotspur (January 7)
• Premier League: Bournemouth 2-3 Arsenal (January 3)
• Premier League: Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth (December 30)
• Premier League: Brentford 4-1 Bournemouth (December 27)

The victory against Spurs was crucial, with Antoine Semenyo scoring a dramatic 95th-minute winner in what may prove to be his final appearance for the club. The Ghana international is heavily linked with a £65 million move to Manchester City, with negotiations reaching advanced stages.

Despite the win against Tottenham, Bournemouth's overall form remains concerning. They went 11 matches without a victory before that game, and their 26-point tally from 21 matches puts them just nine points clear of the relegation zone.

Key Issues:

• Defensive fragility (38 goals conceded in 21 games)
• Heavy reliance on Semenyo, who may depart
• Significant injury crisis with multiple key players sidelined
• Inconsistent performances at the Vitality Stadium

Injury Crisis: Manager Andoni Iraola revealed the squad is "extremely stretched" with only "15 outfield players" fit for selection. Key absences include:

• Justin Kluivert (requires surgery - timeframe unknown)
• Tyler Adams (knee - long-term)
• Ben Gannon-Doak (thigh - long-term)
• Veljko Milosavljevic (knee - returned recently)
• Ryan Christie (knee - definitely out)
• Lewis Cook (neck - doubtful)
• Evanilson and Enes Unal (both finished Tottenham game with issues)

Liverpool: Struggling Through Injury-Plagued Season

Liverpool's defense of their Premier League crown has been disappointing, to say the least. The Reds currently sit in fourth position with 35 points from 21 matches, a staggering 14 points behind league leaders Arsenal. What was expected to be a title challenge has morphed into a battle for Champions League qualification.

Recent Results:

• Premier League: Arsenal 0-0 Liverpool (January 8)
• Premier League: Fulham 2-2 Liverpool (January 4)
• Premier League: Liverpool 0-0 Leeds United (January 1)
• Premier League: Liverpool 2-1 Wolves (December 27)
• Premier League: Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth (December 30)

Arne Slot's side has drawn their last three Premier League matches and are unbeaten in nine games, but the lack of victories has been costly. The goalless draw with Arsenal on January 8 was particularly frustrating, with Liverpool dominating the second half but unable to find the breakthrough.

Injury Crisis: Liverpool's attacking options have been decimated:

• Alexander Isak (broken ankle/fibula - out until March/April) - The British record signing has been ruled out for "a couple of months" after undergoing surgery
• Mohamed Salah (AFCON duty with Egypt) - Away until at least January 14, potentially until January 18 if Egypt reach the final
• Conor Bradley (significant knee injury) - Suffered the injury against Arsenal and will undergo surgery
• Hugo Ekitike (DOMS/muscle issue) - Has been doubtful but could return
• Cody Gakpo (muscle injury) - Not ready to return until early January
• Giovanni Leoni (ACL) - Long-term absence
• Wataru Endo (knock) - Working on return
• Jayden Danns (stress fracture) - Not even training

The injury to record signing Alexander Isak has been particularly devastating. The Swedish striker, who cost £125 million from Newcastle United, has managed just three goals in 16 appearances and now faces months on the sidelines after breaking his ankle against Tottenham.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical matchup heavily favors Liverpool, though Bournemouth have shown they can cause problems:

Overall Record:

• Liverpool Wins: 18
• Bournemouth Wins: 2
• Draws: 1

Recent encounters have been competitive, with Bournemouth securing memorable victories at the Vitality Stadium in previous seasons. However, in the reverse fixture earlier this season at Anfield, Liverpool secured a comfortable 4-2 victory on the opening day, with goals from Diogo Jota, Luis Díaz (2) and Cody Gakpo.

Bournemouth's defensive record in this fixture is concerning - they've conceded 69 goals in their 21 Premier League matches this season, the highest tally in the division.

Tactical Analysis

Bournemouth's Approach

Andoni Iraola typically sets up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, emphasizing high pressing and quick transitions. However, the extensive injury list may force tactical compromises.

Expected Formation: 4-2-3-1

• Djordje Petrovic in goal (though fan confidence is waning)
• Alex Jimenez and Adrien Truffert as attacking full-backs
• Marcos Senesi and James Hill at center-back
• Alex Scott and potentially Lewis Cook (if fit) in midfield
• Eli Junior Kroupi likely to start following his impressive impact
• Evanilson leading the line if recovered

Game Plan:

• Exploit Liverpool's defensive vulnerabilities
• Target Liverpool's makeshift attackers with physical pressure
• Utilize the pace of Kroupi and width of full-backs
• Make the Vitality Stadium a hostile environment
• Capitalize on Liverpool's travel fatigue and depleted squad

The potential absence of Semenyo would be a massive blow, removing their most creative and dangerous attacker who has contributed to over 30% of their Premier League goals this season.

Liverpool's Strategy

Arne Slot will likely continue with his preferred setup despite the injury crisis, though personnel limitations may force adaptations.

Expected Formation: 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3

• Alisson in goal
• Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konaté at center-back
• Makeshift full-backs with Bradley injured
• Ryan Gravenberch anchoring midfield alongside Alexis Mac Allister
• Florian Wirtz and Dominik Szoboszlai providing creativity
• Federico Chiesa or returning Hugo Ekitike leading the attack

Tactical Priorities:

• Control possession and dictate tempo
• Compress Bournemouth's space in midfield
• Exploit width through overlapping full-backs
• Manage the game professionally to secure three points
• Avoid conceding early to prevent a confidence boost for the hosts

The absence of Salah, Isak, and Bradley represents a significant blow to Liverpool's attacking threat and defensive stability.

Key Battles

Eli Junior Kroupi vs Liverpool Defense The 19-year-old French forward has been a revelation, scoring seven league goals and becoming the top-scoring teenager in the Premier League. Liverpool's defense must neutralize his pace and direct running.

Dominik Szoboszlai vs Bournemouth Midfield The Hungarian playmaker will be crucial to Liverpool's creativity. His ability to find space and deliver quality passes could unlock Bournemouth's defense.

Evanilson vs Van Dijk If fit, the Brazilian striker faces the monumental task of beating one of the world's best defenders. His movement and hold-up play will be essential for Bournemouth's attacking threat.

Liverpool's Makeshift Attack vs Bournemouth's Leaky Defense With Liverpool missing their key forwards, can Bournemouth's vulnerable backline capitalize, or will Liverpool's superior quality still shine through?

Transfer Window Impact

The January transfer window adds intrigue to this fixture:

Bournemouth:

• Antoine Semenyo - Close to completing £65 million move to Manchester City
• Milos Kerkez - Previously sold to Liverpool for undisclosed fee
• Strong financial position after summer sales may allow reinforcements

Liverpool:

• Reportedly interested in Semenyo as Salah successor
• Marc Guehi from Crystal Palace remains defensive target
• Unlikely to make panic buys despite injury crisis
• Focus on summer 2026 and 2027 windows

The potential absence of Semenyo for Bournemouth cannot be overstated - he's been their most influential player this season.

Statistical Insights

Bournemouth:

• Average 1.24 goals scored per game
• Conceding 1.81 goals per game
• 38.8% win rate at home
• Failed to win in 8 Premier League games when scoring 2+ goals

Liverpool:

• Average 1.67 goals scored per game (down from last season)
• Nine games unbeaten but drawing too frequently
• 47.6% away win rate
• Struggled to create clear chances in recent matches

Betting Predictions & Analysis

Based on comprehensive analysis of form, injuries, and tactical considerations:

Match Result Prediction: Liverpool Win (Narrow)

Confidence Level: Moderate (60%)

Despite Liverpool's injury crisis and inconsistent form, their quality should still be sufficient to overcome a struggling Bournemouth side. However, the margin of victory will likely be narrow given both teams' current issues.

Predicted Score: Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool

Alternative Betting Markets:

Both Teams to Score: YES (High confidence)

• Bournemouth have scored in most home games
• Liverpool's defensive record has been shakier than previous seasons
• Both teams showing defensive vulnerabilities

Over 2.5 Goals: YES (Moderate confidence)

• Bournemouth's games have featured 69 goals combined (highest in PL)
• Both teams' defensive issues
• Open, attacking style from both managers

Hugo Ekitike to Score (if fit): Moderate value

• Liverpool's top scorer with 11 goals in 24 games
• Will be desperate to prove his worth
• Bournemouth's defensive frailties

Correct Score 1-2 Liverpool: Strong value bet

• Reflects Liverpool's narrow superiority
• Accounts for Bournemouth's home scoring threat
• Common scoreline in recent competitive matches

Liverpool to Win from Behind: Interesting longshot

• Bournemouth often start strong at home
• Liverpool's quality and experience to prevail
• Recent pattern of late drama in Bournemouth games

The X-Factor: Semenyo's Potential Absence

If Antoine Semenyo has indeed completed his move to Manchester City or is withheld from the squad due to transfer negotiations, Bournemouth's attacking threat diminishes significantly. The Ghanaian has been directly involved in nearly a third of their league goals, and his absence would tilt the odds even more heavily in Liverpool's favor.

Conversely, if Semenyo plays and is motivated to impress in what could be his final home game, he could cause Liverpool's makeshift defense serious problems.

Final Verdict

This fixture presents a fascinating clash of two teams battling different crises. Bournemouth are fighting relegation concerns while managing an injury crisis and potential key departures. Liverpool are struggling to salvage their season and secure Champions League football while dealing with their own injury nightmare.

On paper, Liverpool's superior quality and experience should prevail, even with their depleted squad. The Reds have better depth, more tactical flexibility, and crucially, more motivation - dropping points here would seriously damage their top-four ambitions.

However, Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium can be dangerous, especially against teams with defensive vulnerabilities. The Cherries will be buoyed by their victory over Tottenham and will sense an opportunity to exploit Liverpool's weaknesses.

The key factors favoring Liverpool include their stronger squad depth (even with injuries), superior defensive organization around Van Dijk, and the experience to manage difficult away fixtures. For Bournemouth, home advantage and Liverpool's congested fixture list could level the playing field.

Expect a competitive, open game with goals at both ends. Liverpool should have enough quality to secure three crucial points, but it won't be comfortable. The visitors' ability to control the midfield through Gravenberch and Szoboszlai while minimizing Bournemouth's counter-attacking threat will be decisive.

Our Prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool

Both teams desperately need the points, but Liverpool's championship pedigree and individual quality should prove the difference in a closely-fought encounter on the south coast.

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