Everton vs Newcastle United Match Preview & Predictions 29/11/2025

Match Overview

The Toffees welcome the Magpies to Hill Dickinson Stadium in what promises to be a fascinating Premier League encounter. Both sides will be eager to claim three points as they navigate through a demanding festive fixture schedule.

Current Form Analysis

Everton (13th Position - 2025/26 Season) David Moyes' side have shown resilience in their inaugural season at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, collecting 13 points from 11 matches. The Toffees have demonstrated solid home form with three wins, two draws, and just one defeat at their new fortress. Their recent 2-0 victory over Fulham showcased their ability to grind out results when it matters most.

Key statistics:

• 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses overall
• Averaging 1.09 goals per match
• 36% of matches feature over 2.5 goals
• Jordan Pickford remains a reliable presence between the posts

Newcastle United (11th Position - 2025/26 Season) Eddie Howe's men have endured an inconsistent campaign juggling Premier League and Champions League commitments. Recent form has been concerning, with a 3-1 defeat to Brentford preceding the international break. However, their European exploits continue to impress with victories over Athletic Bilbao and Benfica.

Notable figures:

• Mixed form: 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses in last six league matches
• Struggling away from St. James' Park with just 0.6 points per game on the road
• Seven goals scored and eight conceded in recent PL outings
• Champions League football creating fixture congestion

Head-to-Head Record

The historical rivalry between these two clubs is remarkably balanced. Over 49 Premier League meetings, Everton hold a slight edge with 20 victories to Newcastle's 16, with 13 draws. Recent encounters have been tightly contested affairs, including a memorable goalless draw at Goodison Park in October 2024 where Jordan Pickford saved an Anthony Gordon penalty against his former club.

Average goals per meeting: 2.90 goals Both teams to score: 56% of matches Over 2.5 goals: 47.6% of encounters

Team News & Injury Updates

Everton Concerns:

• Jarrad Branthwaite (groin) - Long-term absentee, not expected until late January
• Nathan Patterson (hernia/groin) - Doubtful after recent procedure
• Vitalii Mykolenko - Fitness being monitored

Newcastle Doubts:

• Anthony Gordon (hip) - 50/50 availability, withdrew from England duty
• Nick Pope (concussion protocol) - Touch and go for selection
• Joelinton (lower leg) - Expected to be available
• Harrison Ashby (thigh) - Ruled out

Tactical Battleground

Everton's Approach: David Moyes will likely deploy his trademark pragmatic 4-5-1 formation, relying on defensive solidity and counter-attacking threat. Iliman Ndiaye has been their creative spark with four league goals, while Idrissa Gana Gueye provides crucial midfield steel. The home crowd at Hill Dickinson Stadium could prove vital in creating an intimidating atmosphere.

Newcastle's Strategy: Eddie Howe faces selection dilemmas with key players doubtful. Without Gordon, Newcastle may lack their usual width and creativity. Alexander Isak remains their primary goal threat, though service quality has been inconsistent. The Magpies' away form vulnerability could be exploited by a determined Everton side.

Key Battle: Pickford vs Isak

This individual duel could determine the outcome. Jordan Pickford's shot-stopping prowess faces arguably the Premier League's most clinical finisher in Alexander Isak. Pickford's penalty save against Gordon last season demonstrated his big-game mentality, while Isak's movement and finishing make him a constant threat.

Predictions & Betting Insights

Our Prediction: Everton 1-1 Newcastle United

This has all the hallmarks of a cagey, low-scoring affair. Everton's home resilience meets Newcastle's away-day struggles, suggesting shared spoils are the likeliest outcome.

Alternative Scorelines:

• Everton 2-1 Newcastle: 18% probability
• Everton 0-0 Newcastle: 15% probability
• Newcastle 1-0 Everton: 12% probability

Betting Markets to Consider:

• Under 2.5 Goals - Strong value given both teams' recent defensive records
• Both Teams to Score - NO - 44% of historical meetings feature BTTS failure
• Draw - Newcastle's inconsistent away form favours stalemate
• Everton Double Chance - Home advantage and Magpies' travel woes make this appealing

Goalscorer Picks:

• Iliman Ndiaye (Everton) - Top scorer with four league goals
• Beto (Everton) - Impact substitute option

Match Facts

• This marks Everton's first-ever home fixture against Newcastle at Hill Dickinson Stadium
• David Moyes boasts a positive record against Eddie Howe in head-to-head meetings
• Newcastle have failed to win in their last three away Premier League matches
• Everton unbeaten in their last two home league matches
• The reverse fixture last season ended 0-1 to Everton at St. James' Park

Final Verdict

Expect a fiercely contested midweek battle where neither side can afford dropped points. Everton's newfound home fortress mentality clashes with Newcastle's European-affected fatigue. While the Magpies possess superior individual quality, Everton's organization and home advantage should ensure they avoid defeat.

The Toffees' defensive discipline under Moyes, combined with Newcastle's away-day vulnerability, points toward a hard-fought draw. Both managers will prioritize avoiding defeat over chasing all three points, producing a tactical stalemate befitting two evenly-matched sides.

Recommended Bet: Draw @ competitive odds | Under 2.5 Goals

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