Man City vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | Premier League – 21 February 2026

Match Overview

Manchester City host Newcastle United on Saturday evening in what promises to be one of the most compelling Premier League fixtures of the season's second half. With Arsenal holding a six-point lead at the summit of the table and Pep Guardiola's men six weeks into one of the most turbulent periods of his Etihad tenure, this is a fixture City absolutely cannot afford to drop — and Guardiola will be keenly aware of it.

The Magpies arrive at the Etihad following a hectic schedule of their own: they face Aston Villa in the FA Cup on Saturday 14 February, then travel to Azerbaijan to face Qarabag in the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 play-off on Wednesday 18 February — meaning the kick-off time for this fixture has been moved from 12:30 to 20:00 GMT to give Eddie Howe's squad sufficient recovery time. That fixture-congestion story cuts both ways, however, with City themselves boasting four of their next five matches at home and desperately seeking a run of wins to keep Arsenal within touching distance.

Meanwhile, the narrative around this game is charged with recent cup confrontations: City eliminated Newcastle 5–1 on aggregate in the EFL Cup semi-finals, winning 2–0 in the first leg at St James' Park in January before claiming a 3–1 win at the Etihad on 4 February — with the two sides renewing acquaintances in this top-flight league clash just 17 days later.

Premier League Standings (Before MD27)

Arsenal sit six points clear of City at the top following their stunning form, while City's tally of 50 points from 25 games reflects a turbulent season of dizzying highs and damaging lows. Newcastle, sitting 10th with a goal difference of zero, are comfortably mid-table but have been inconsistent enough to have prompted growing questions about Eddie Howe's future — unfair on a squad dealing with significant injury absences, but reflective of expectation levels at a club riding Saudi-driven ambitions.

Recent Form Guide

🔵 Manchester City – Last 5 Premier League Matches

City's Premier League form has been a rollercoaster. After back-to-back 1–1 home draws against Chelsea and Brighton in early January, they suffered a stinging 2–0 derby defeat at Old Trafford on 17 January. But Guardiola's men bounced back in style: a 2–0 home win over Wolves on 24 January was followed by a 2–1 thriller at Anfield — Haaland's stoppage-time penalty sealing a crucial win — and then the commanding 3–0 victory over Fulham on 11 February. The Etihad is turning into a fortress once more, with City unbeaten at home in their last six Premier League outings.

In all competitions, City also beat Galatasaray 2–0 to seal Champions League last-16 qualification and thrashed Newcastle 3–1 in the EFL Cup semi-final second leg — Antoine Semenyo (two goals) and Tijjani Reijnders featuring prominently.

⚫⬜ Newcastle United – Last 5 Competitive Matches

Newcastle's recent run makes for alarming reading. After a 1–1 draw at PSG in the Champions League (28 January), the Magpies suffered three consecutive defeats: a 1–4 hammering at Liverpool, a 1–3 EFL Cup loss at City, and a 2–3 collapse against Brentford at home on 7 February. The only bright spot came on 10 February when goals from Malick Thiaw and Jacob Ramsey earned a gutsy 2–1 win at Spurs — Ramsey's first for the club. However, Bruno Guimarães then limped off late in that match and his fitness is now a critical concern heading into the Etihad clash.

Team News & Injury Report

🔵 Manchester City – Injury List

The most pressing concern for City fans is Erling Haaland, who scored against Fulham to draw level with club legend Colin Bell on 153 career goals — but was hauled off at the interval as a precaution. Guardiola described it as "niggles" without being specific, saying he did not know the full extent. Haaland has scored 29 goals across all competitions (22 in the league) and is the runaway Golden Boot leader — his absence would be a seismic blow, particularly in a potential title-decider weekend. The Norwegian is expected to be assessed ahead of the Newcastle game with optimism he will be available. The other big absentee remains Joško Gvardiol, who fractured his tibia in the Chelsea draw in January and is likely out for the rest of the campaign. Antoine Semenyo — who has been sensational since his £62.5m January arrival from Bournemouth — picked up an ankle knock post-Fulham and is touch-and-go.

⚫⬜ Newcastle United – Injury List

Newcastle's biggest pre-match headline belongs to Bruno Guimarães. The Brazilian captain and talisman limped off visibly distressed in the closing stages of the Spurs victory, and Howe admitted it felt "more like an injury" than cramp. With the Qarabag Champions League tie on Wednesday 18 February to navigate first, Howe may be forced to make a difficult call — risk his captain in Baku, or manage him towards the City game. Either way, there is significant doubt over his availability at the Etihad. Without Bruno — who has netted nine Premier League goals this season and is Newcastle's creative heartbeat — Howe's options narrow dramatically. Tino Livramento's hamstring issue (out until March) and Fabian Schär's ankle injury have also denuded the defensive options, with Lewis Miley suffering a setback in his recovery from a dead leg. The one encouraging note is Dan Burn returning from bruised ribs to add experience to the back line.

Predicted Lineups

If Haaland is ruled out, Guardiola would likely shift Omar Marmoush to the striker role — the Egyptian international has shown he can lead the line effectively after scoring twice in the EFL Cup semi-final and netting in City's win over Wolves. Bernardo Silva, freshly returned to full fitness, and Tijjani Reijnders — signed on loan from AC Milan and integrating excellently — offer creativity in central areas. A fully fit back four remains Guardiola's biggest challenge with Gvardiol gone and Guéhi doubtful, but Rúben Dias and Nathan Aké provide a reliable partnership. On the Newcastle side, everything hinges on Bruno Guimarães. If the Brazilian is absent, Tonali and Longstaff would need to carry significantly more of the midfield workload, with Jacob Ramsey — impressive since his summer arrival — likely to push higher.

Head-to-Head Record

Recent Meetings

The statistics are emphatic: Man City have won 35 of their 53 meetings with Newcastle in all competitions, and have scored in each of their last 34 Premier League clashes with the Magpies — the longest scoring streak one team has against another in Premier League history. In the league, City have won 32 times, more than against any other club, while scoring 106 goals. Since 2006, City have won 28 and drawn six of their 36 Premier League encounters, scoring two or more goals in 25 of those wins. Newcastle's only two top-flight successes in this period were a 2–1 home win under Rafa Benítez in January 2019, and the 2–1 win at St James' Park in November 2025 — a result that now stands as Newcastle's sole consolation given City's 5–1 aggregate EFL Cup triumph in the semi-finals that followed.

Key Battles to Watch

Haaland (if fit) vs. Newcastle's CB Pairing

If Erling Haaland takes to the pitch, this is the tie within the tie. Thiaw and Burn are a solid defensive unit, but they will face a striker who has already scored 22 Premier League goals and who was operating with ruthless efficiency before picking up his latest niggle. Newcastle must stop the Norwegian early — allow him a sniff and the floodgates could open.

Tijjani Reijnders vs. Bruno Guimarães (if fit)

The midfield battle could be decisive. Reijnders has been arguably City's signing of the season, bringing calm organisation and pressing intelligence from AC Milan. Bruno Guimarães — when fit — is Newcastle's engine, their quality ball-winner and their most dangerous outlet. If Bruno is absent, Guardiola's midfield will have a field day. If he plays, this becomes an enthralling duel of two of Europe's most dynamic central midfielders.

Anthony Gordon vs. Rayan Aït-Nouri

Anthony Gordon remains Newcastle's most unpredictable attacker and the man most likely to cause City problems on the break. The Algeria international Aït-Nouri — deputising for the absent Gvardiol on the left — has been solid but has been tested by pace on the counter. Gordon thrives in exactly those situations, and this matchup could prove the key dynamic for Newcastle's attacking ambitions.

Tactical Analysis & Match Verdict

Man City at the Etihad is a formidable proposition for any side, and Newcastle arrive carrying the physical and psychological weight of a brutal midweek Champions League trip to Azerbaijan. Their recent form — one win in five matches, 12 goals conceded in that run — points to a side under significant strain. The absences of Livramento, Schär, Miley and potentially Guimarães strip Howe of crucial options in the positions where he can least afford them.

Guardiola's side, meanwhile, is still chasing Arsenal and the title. This is a must-win game at home, and the Etihad crowd will generate an intensity that further tilts the balance. With Reijnders orchestrating centrally, Bernardo Silva and Foden providing guile, and Marmoush offering tireless energy whether through the middle or from wide, City have the tools to dismantle a Newcastle defence missing key personnel.

The biggest risk for the home side is complacency — they were turned over 2–1 in the reverse fixture at St James' Park in November — and the Haaland fitness question adds real uncertainty. If the Norwegian is ruled out and Marmoush leads the line, City retain strong options but lose their most lethal finisher.

Newcastle will set up to be compact and direct, looking to isolate Gordon on the left and use Woltemade's physical presence to create second balls. They are capable of a smash-and-grab — they managed it in November. But the confluence of injuries, fixture congestion, and the sheer weight of Etihad Stadium at full voice make this a very difficult night for the Magpies.

Our verdict: Man City win 2–0, with or without Haaland. A clean sheet at home is achievable against a depleted Newcastle attack, and Guardiola's XI has more than enough quality to score in a game they need to win at all costs in the title race.

Our Prediction

We back Manchester City to win 2–0. City's home form is excellent and the title race pressure means Guardiola will demand maximum intensity. Newcastle are fighting on too many fronts with too many missing players, and the return of Haaland — even if managed cautiously — gives City the cutting edge they need. A first clean sheet in a while at home adds value, given Newcastle's depleted attacking options.

Top Betting Tips for Man City vs Newcastle

Match Odds Summary