Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | Premier League – 22 February 2026

Match Overview

The City Ground has witnessed some extraordinary managerial drama this season — and it shows no sign of stopping. When Nottingham Forest host Liverpool on Sunday afternoon, it will be the Premier League debut of Vítor Pereira, the club's fourth permanent head coach of the 2025/26 campaign. Before him came Nuno Espírito Santo, Ange Postecoglou, and Sean Dyche — all sacked by the combustible owner Evangelos Marinakis, all unable to harness the enormous £180m+ squad he assembled over the summer and winter transfer windows.

Liverpool arrive at a ground that has historically given them plenty of problems. Arne Slot's Reds are in a three-way title battle with Arsenal and Manchester City, sitting sixth in the table but with games in hand on multiple rivals. A win at the City Ground would be a huge statement and keep them firmly in contention for back-to-back Premier League titles — a feat not achieved at Anfield since the 1980s. The stakes for Liverpool could not be higher.

For Forest, this is an existential battle. Three points above the relegation zone with 12 games to play, Pereira's appointment is a last-chance saloon — and his second match in charge (after the Europa League trip to Fenerbahce on 19 February) will be this enormous home test against Arne Slot's free-scoring Reds. The City Ground will be deafening. The atmosphere will be electric. Whether Forest's injury-ravaged squad can match Liverpool's quality is the defining question.

Premier League Table (Before MD27)

The table tells contrasting stories. Liverpool's sixth-place position may seem alarming for the defending champions, but they have games in hand and have shown elite quality in stretches. Their title challenge is very much alive. Forest's situation is precarious — three points above the drop zone with the relegation battle between themselves, West Ham and Leeds one of the most closely contested in years. A home win over Liverpool would be transformative. A defeat could drag them back into the mire.

Recent Form Guide

🔴 Nottingham Forest – Last 5 Premier League Matches

The statistics behind Dyche's dismissal are damning. Forest took just two points from their last five Premier League games — a 3–1 home defeat to relegation rivals Leeds, a 0–1 loss at Crystal Palace, a 0–1 reverse at Wolves, and draws against Crystal Palace (away) and Wolves (home). It was that goalless home draw against the bottom club that finally ended Dyche's tenure. Crucially, Forest have scored in just one of their last five league outings, and their last win in the Premier League came on November 22, 2025 — a famous 3–0 victory away at champions Liverpool that felt like a turning point but ultimately wasn't.

In Europe, Forest's form has been markedly better. They beat Porto in Dyche's first game, then dispatched Ferencváros 4–0 on January 30. The contrast between European and domestic results has become an ongoing source of frustration at the club.

🔴 Liverpool – Last 5 Competitive Matches

Liverpool have hit top form at exactly the right time. Their last five results include a hard-fought 1–0 win at Sunderland (11 February), a 2–1 FA Cup fourth-round win over Brighton, back-to-back Premier League victories over Chelsea and Aston Villa, and a 1–1 draw at Arsenal in a pivotal top-of-the-table clash. Arne Slot's side have now won four of their last five in all competitions and look to have found the consistency they lacked in the first half of the season. Hugo Ekitike has emerged as the standout performer in recent weeks, while Florian Wirtz — when fit — has been breathtaking in the Slot system.

The Vítor Pereira Factor: New Manager, Same Problems?

The appointment of Vítor Pereira is a fascinating study in owner psychology. This is now Forest's fourth permanent head coach of the season — an unprecedented level of instability for a club that was in the Champions League just two years ago. Nuno Espírito Santo was sacked after a public dispute with Marinakis in September. Ange Postecoglou lasted barely five weeks. Sean Dyche lasted 114 days. All three were dismissed despite the considerable mitigating factor of a catastrophic injury list.

Pereira brings specific qualities that appeal to Marinakis: tactical organisation, man-management, and — crucially — experience of keeping Premier League sides in the top flight under pressure, having accomplished this with Wolves last season after inheriting a side with just nine points from sixteen games. Staff at Molineux described his approach as tactically reminiscent of Nuno Espírito Santo, with his togetherness-building in the dressing room a particular strength.

The "new manager bounce" is a statistically real phenomenon in football, but the scale of the task here is daunting. Pereira will have had just four days — including a Europa League trip to Turkey — to implement any meaningful changes before this Liverpool clash. The squad he inherits has a history of underperforming against its xG metrics by a wider margin than any side in the division. Whether he can correct that within days is almost impossible to answer before kick-off.

Team News & Injury Report

🔴 Nottingham Forest – Injury & Suspension List

The Nottingham Forest infirmary reads like a who's who of their most important players. Chris Wood — their only reliable Premier League striker — has not played since October 18 after undergoing knee surgery in December. His absence alone explains much of Forest's goalscoring impotence: the Tricky Trees have scored only 25 goals in 26 games, a shocking return for a squad that cost over £180m to assemble. John Victor has been ruled out for the season with a knee problem, meaning Stefan Ortega (on loan from Manchester City) continues in goal — though even he was only acquired as an emergency option. Matz Sels carries a groin/hip issue that remains concerning. The Brazilian Murillo, widely considered Forest's most important outfield player, has been missing with a calf complaint and his return for this game is uncertain. And Douglas Luiz, brought in on loan from Aston Villa in January, completed his return to Villa Park this week having endured a nightmare spell at the City Ground — a mid-season loan termination that left Pereira with even fewer options in central midfield.

🔴 Liverpool – Injury & Suspension List

Liverpool's injury list is significant but less damaging than Forest's. The biggest concern is Florian Wirtz — signed in a club-record deal in the summer — who picked up a hamstring concern and is being managed carefully. His presence would be a major boost; his absence a notable loss of creativity for Slot. Hugo Ekitike is expected to be fit despite a mid-season scare. The French striker — a £42m summer signing — has been revelatory since Alexander Isak's broken leg in December, stepping up as the first-choice No.9 with goals, pressing and technical quality that have drawn comparisons to a young Mo Salah. Conor Bradley's season-ending knee injury remains a blow at right-back, with Trent Alexander-Arnold no longer at the club following his January exit to Real Madrid. Dominik Szoboszlai and Wataru Endo are both sidelined, but the quality of Gravenberch, Mac Allister and the returning Wirtz in midfield means Liverpool retain real depth.

Predicted Lineups

Forest's selection is almost entirely dictated by their injury list. Lorenzo Lucca — who scored his first Forest goal in the Leeds defeat — is likely to lead the line in Wood's continued absence, with Gibbs-White dropping into a No.10 role. The key question is Murillo's fitness; if the Brazilian starts, Forest have a solid defensive platform. Without him, Milenkovic and Morato — while decent — leave Liverpool's front three with exploitable space. On the other flank, Callum Hudson-Odoi's shoulder concern could hand Omari Hutchinson another opportunity from the left.

For Liverpool, Slot faces the pleasant dilemma of where to fit Wirtz if he's passed fit. The German's versatility allows him to operate as a No.10, a free-roaming attacker, or from wide positions. Mac Allister and Gravenberch form one of the Premier League's most complete central midfield partnerships, while Salah — on the right wing where he remains iconic despite his advancing years — continues to produce at an extraordinary level with 17 league goals. Ekitike's movement and pressing will be a constant threat to Forest's makeshift defensive line.

Key Battles to Watch

Head-to-Head Record (Recent History)

Recent Head-to-Head Results

The most significant recent H2H result was Forest's stunning 3–0 win at Anfield on 22 November 2025 — Dyche's finest hour and proof that the City Ground can conjure magic even in a dismal season. That result prompted widespread optimism at Forest that proved short-lived. Before that, Liverpool were dominant in this fixture, winning three of the four previous meetings and conceding just three goals across those games. Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in four of their last six trips to the City Ground. This H2H record fundamentally shapes how we approach the odds and predictions for this game.

Tactical Analysis & Match Verdict

The tactical shape of this game is relatively predictable, and that predictability favours Liverpool. Pereira will set Forest up to be compact and difficult to break down — his default setting is a low-block 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 with the two banks of four being sacrosanct. When he kept Wolves up last season, he was praised for making them hard to beat even if they were rarely inspiring in possession. The challenge is that Forest's current squad — stripped of Wood, Hudson-Odoi and potentially Murillo — doesn't have the quality to maintain that shape for 90 minutes against a side of Liverpool's calibre.

Liverpool, under Slot, are forensic in the final third. Their patient build-up, Gravenberch's ability to find pockets between the lines, and Ekitike's intelligent running all pose problems that Forest's midfield simply may not be equipped to handle. Gibbs-White — if he's fully engaged and not distracted by his widely-reported desire to leave the club in the summer — is capable of a moment of individual quality. But one man operating in isolation cannot overcome a Liverpool side that has conceded just 34 league goals in 25 games.

The "new manager bounce" is a real factor and we must respect it. Forest at the City Ground on a roaring afternoon with all to play for in their survival fight is never a comfortable assignment for any team. Liverpool have not always been comfortable on this ground — the 3–0 reverse in November is evidence of that. However, that Forest side was better equipped, had more momentum, and was playing under Dyche's early-tenure energy. This current Forest side is more depleted, more demoralised, and facing a Liverpool team in the best form of their season.

Our verdict: Liverpool win 2–0, with clean sheet the primary value play. Forest will be hard to break down initially, but Liverpool's quality in midfield and attack should find the decisive moments after the hour mark. Ekitike to score.

Our Prediction

We back Liverpool to win 2–0 at the City Ground. While the new-manager bounce is real and the atmosphere will be electric, Forest's injury crisis, chronic goalscoring problems and the sheer quality of Slot's Liverpool side make it very difficult to back the hosts. Liverpool's away form in big moments has been strong, and with the title still very much in their sights, they will approach this with the intensity and structure needed to silence the City Ground. Ekitike anytime scorer represents excellent value at the current odds.

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