Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | North London Derby – 22 February 2026

Match Overview: The Derby That Defines a Season

When the North London Derby whistle blows on Sunday afternoon, it will mark one of the most extraordinary managerial debut scenarios in Premier League history. Igor Tudor — appointed just eight days before kick-off — takes his first steps as Tottenham head coach against the table-topping, title-charging Arsenal. If ever there was a baptism of fire, this is it. The 47-year-old Croatian has managed in Italy, France, Turkey and Greece, but he has never previously taken charge of a single Premier League match. His first happens to be a North London Derby in front of 62,850 packed-in Spurs supporters, against the best team in England, with relegation looming behind him.

The contrast in trajectories is almost cartoonishly stark. Arsenal top the Premier League with 57 points from 26 games, chasing a first league title since 2004 while fighting on four fronts — the Premier League, FA Cup, Champions League and the Carabao Cup final against Manchester City on 23 February, the day after this game. Tottenham sit 16th with 29 points, five above the relegation zone, having won just two of their last 17 Premier League matches after sacking Thomas Frank — their second managerial dismissal of the season following the divisive removal of Ange Postecoglou in the summer.

The reverse fixture in November told the story of this season's power imbalance with brutal clarity. Eberechi Eze became the first player in 47 years to score a North London Derby hat-trick, putting Arsenal 4–1 up in a performance that had Thomas Frank apologising to Spurs supporters and admitting it was 'completely opposite' to what he had intended. Sunday's match is Arsenal's immediate opportunity to complete the double, put daylight between themselves and Man City in the title race, and potentially all but end Spurs' top-flight season with four points of clear blue water between themselves and the relegation zone.

Premier League Standings (Before MD27)

The gulf between first and sixteenth in the table — 28 points separating Arsenal from Tottenham — is one of the largest ever recorded in a North London Derby. Arsenal have the best defensive record in the division (18 goals conceded) and the third-highest scoring attack (50 goals). A win here would extend their lead over second-placed Manchester City to seven points, with City facing a potentially difficult trip to Newcastle on Saturday. A loss for Arsenal would hand City a golden opportunity to cut the gap to four.

For Spurs, the stakes could not be more personal. Five points above the drop zone with 12 games remaining, every point is existential. Losing this game — particularly at home to Arsenal — would pile immense psychological pressure on Tudor in only his first fixture. But winning it? The entire atmosphere at N17 would transform overnight.

Recent Form Guide

⚪ Tottenham Hotspur – Last 5 Premier League Games

Tottenham's domestic form is catastrophic. Their last five Premier League results — a 2–0 defeat at Old Trafford, a 1–3 reversal at home to Brentford in January, a 2–1 loss at home to Newcastle (which triggered Frank's sacking), and draws at Brentford and home to Wolves — represent zero wins since December 2025. The club had not won a league game in 2026 under Frank. In those eight winless league games, Spurs scored only nine goals and conceded 18. The squad's morale was described in multiple press reports as the lowest it had been since the club's last relegation fight in 1977. Captain Cristian Romero's now-famous Instagram post — calling it 'disgraceful' that the squad had just eleven fit players — became a flashpoint that exposed the toxic atmosphere within the dressing room.

In the Champions League, however, there is a glimmer. Spurs qualified for the last 16 after finishing fourth in their group, losing just once in eight games. Tudor will be well aware that whatever psychological lift European success brings, it means nothing if the club is playing in the Championship next season.

🔴 Arsenal – Last 5 Premier League Games

Arsenal's Premier League form has been largely excellent, though they have shown vulnerability in not killing games off. Their last five league results include a 3–0 thrashing of Sunderland, a 4–0 win at Leeds, a 1–1 draw at Manchester City — one of the best away performances of the season — a 2–1 home win over Wolves, and a frustrating 1–1 draw at Brentford in their last outing on February 12. That Brentford draw attracted some criticism — Arsenal led through Viktor Gyökeres but were pegged back — though Arteta's men had several chances to win it in the second half. The dropped point means Manchester City remain within four points at the summit.

Despite those small blips, Arsenal have not lost in the Premier League since their 2–0 defeat at Liverpool on December 14. In 2026 they have taken 11 points from five league games (three wins, two draws), with their early-season title pace now being tested by the fixture density of their four-front campaign.

The Tudor Effect: Can the Interim Magic Work Immediately?

In modern football, the 'new manager bounce' is statistically documented: clubs that change managers typically see an immediate improvement in results, at least temporarily. Tudor has a particularly impressive short-term track record. At Juventus in March 2025, he inherited a side sitting fifth, won nine of his first eleven league games, and secured Champions League qualification. At Lazio in March 2024, he won five of nine matches after Sarri's miserable departure. The pattern of short-term success is unmistakable.

But Tudor has never managed in the Premier League. He will have had approximately eight days to get to know his squad before facing Arsenal — time enough to implement the most basic defensive shape but not enough to drill a complex tactical system. His preferred 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 requires athletic wing-backs and disciplined centre-backs. Spurs are missing Destiny Udogie (hamstring), Cristian Romero (suspended — four-game ban), Ben Davies (broken ankle), and Kevin Danso (toe ligament). The defensive resources available to Tudor are severely compromised.

'If he beats Arsenal in the first game, everything's happy. He might even get the job,' Sky Sports pundit Gary Neville said following the appointment. 'It's going to be difficult. He has no knowledge of the Premier League and people will say: does that matter? There'd be a statue of him.' Tudor himself has spoken with characteristic directness: 'There is strong quality in this playing squad, and my job is to organise it, energise it and improve our results quickly.'

The question is whether eight days of organisation and energy can overcome a 28-point gap, 11 first-team absences, and Mikel Arteta's most complete Arsenal squad in a generation.

Team News & Injury Report

⚪ Tottenham Hotspur – Full Injury & Suspension List

Tudor inherits a hospital ward of catastrophic proportions. Up to 11–13 first-team players are unavailable, including captain Cristian Romero who serves game two of a four-match suspension following his second red card of the season against Manchester United. Without Romero, Danso and Davies, Tudor's centre-back options are desperately thin — likely down to Micky van de Ven and Archie Gray, neither of whom have been in convincing form this season. The two potential positive notes: Richarlison (Spurs' top scorer with seven league goals) and Pedro Porro have both been targeting the Arsenal game for return and Tudor has confirmed he'll provide updates in his pre-match press conference. If both are passed fit, it would represent a major boost. Dejan Kulusevski, after months out with a patella issue, is reportedly going through an intensive gym programme but is not expected to be match-ready.

🔴 Arsenal – Injury & Availability List

Arsenal's injury situation is concerning, though nowhere near as damaging as Tottenham's. The three critical doubts heading into Sunday are Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard and Leandro Trossard — Arteta placed all three in the same bracket ahead of the Brentford game, saying 'we will see.' As of Saturday 14 February, Arteta confirmed Ødegaard was 'getting better — it will be a matter of days' and expressed confidence that Saka would be available soon. The biggest definitive absence is Mikel Merino, who underwent successful surgery on a stress fracture in his foot and is expected to miss three to five months — the specialist midfielder who offered something 'unique' in Arteta's system.

Kai Havertz has suffered a fresh muscular setback after only recently returning from a five-month knee injury — his luck this season has been atrocious. Noni Madueke, a January arrival who was beginning to justify his price tag, is also in the treatment room with scan results awaited. The good news: Jurrien Timber is back available, and Viktor Gyökeres is firing on all cylinders with eight league goals in 17 appearances.

Predicted Lineups

Tudor's formation will be dictated almost entirely by his personnel constraints. His preferred 3-at-the-back system becomes extraordinarily risky without Romero (suspended), Danso (toe), Davies (broken ankle) and potentially Udogie (hamstring) — stripping out four natural defenders. A pragmatic 4-4-2 with van de Ven and Gray as a centre-back pairing is the most likely outcome, with Conor Gallagher and Bissouma providing midfield physicality. Richarlison, if passed fit, starts — his seven league goals make him irreplaceable as an attacking focal point. Heung-Min Son, despite a difficult season individually, brings the pace and experience that this game demands.

For Arsenal, the selection depends heavily on the fitness verdicts for Saka, Ødegaard and Trossard. If all three are passed fit, Arteta has his optimal XI. If Saka misses out, Ethan Nwaneri — still only 17 but already showing Champions League readiness — would get the nod on the right. Viktor Gyökeres leads the line with the same relentless pressing and clinical finishing that has made him one of the Premier League's standout strikers in his first season. Declan Rice is fit and in form, and the Saliba-Gabriel defensive partnership remains the best in the division.

North London Derby Head-to-Head

Recent North London Derby Results

Arsenal have been utterly dominant in recent North London Derby history. The November 2025 thrashing extended Arsenal's unbeaten run in this fixture to seven matches, a streak stretching back to January 2023 — the last time Spurs won a derby under Postecoglou. Of Tottenham's last 10 derbies against Arsenal, eight have ended in defeat. The overall head-to-head records show Arsenal leading with 85 wins to Spurs' 62 across 199 competitive meetings. At the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium specifically, Arsenal have won their last three Premier League visits, keeping clean sheets in two of them. The psychological weight of this record cannot be overstated — and it is a weight Tudor must somehow lift from his players before Sunday afternoon.

Key Battles to Watch

Tactical Analysis & Match Verdict

Tudor's game plan will almost certainly be to make Spurs hard to beat first and foremost. With 11 players out and a brand-new manager who has had less than two weeks to work with the squad, offensive ambition must take a back seat to defensive organisation. Expect a deep-block shape — almost certainly a 4-4-2 or 5-4-1 — designed to limit the damage and invite Arsenal onto them, hoping to hit them on the counter through Son and Brennan Johnson's pace.

The problem is that Arsenal under Arteta are among the most technically equipped sides in Europe at breaking down deep defences. Their patient ball circulation — aided enormously by Zubimendi's screening, Rice's driving runs, and Eze's ability to receive and turn in tight spaces — creates the kind of overloads that pull compact shapes apart. Add in the width of Martinelli on the left and potentially Saka on the right, and Arsenal have multiple lanes of attack that a depleted Spurs back line will struggle to cover.

The one genuine danger for Arsenal is if they try to be too clever, allow Spurs to sit in their low block for the first 20 minutes, and then concede a set-piece sucker punch — Spurs targeted this successfully in previous fixtures this season. Son's free-kick delivery and the aerial presence of Solanke represent a real threat from dead balls, and Arsenal's Carabao Cup Final fitness management is a genuine narrative thread that could see Arteta introduce fresh legs earlier than usual.

The 'new manager bounce' is genuine, the home crowd will be ferocious, and the sheer drama of a North London Derby means nothing can be assumed. But the quality differential is among the widest we have seen in any Premier League derby in the modern era. Arsenal are better in every position, have more quality in reserve, and are playing with the momentum of a side that genuinely believes this is their year for the title. Our prediction: a difficult, intense first 30 minutes — perhaps a Spurs goal from a set piece — but ultimately Arsenal's quality tells after half-time.

Our Expert Prediction

We predict Tottenham 1–3 Arsenal. The quality gap, injury crisis and new manager uncertainty are simply too large for Spurs to overcome, even with home advantage and a rocking Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Arsenal's attacking trio of Gyökeres, Eze and Martinelli (or Saka) are too powerful for a makeshift defence without Romero. A Spurs goal is plausible — Son on the counter or a set-piece from Porro — but Arsenal will have enough to win convincingly. The absence of Romero means Arsenal's set-pieces, through Saliba and Gabriel, should be dominant from dead balls. Eberechi Eze to score once more in the North London Derby is a near-irresistible individual selection.

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