Roma vs. Porto: Europa Preview, Odds & Prediction

With a place in the Europa League last 16 at stake, Roma welcome Porto to the Stadio Olimpico on Thursday for the second leg of their knockout playoff tie. Having secured a draw in last week's first leg, the Italian side aims to overcome a team that has eliminated them in all three previous encounters. The winners of this clash will face either Athletic Bilbao or city rivals Lazio in the next round.

Previous Matches and Head-to-head

Roma took the lead at the Estádio do Dragão, but they were ultimately forced to settle for a draw after a fiercely contested match. Zeki Çelik opened the scoring with a rare attacking contribution, but Porto quickly responded through Francisco Moura. The game turned even more challenging for the Giallorossi when Bryan Cristante received a red card, forcing them to defend deep for the remainder of the match.

Despite finishing just one point ahead of Porto in the league phase, Roma boasts an impressive recent European pedigree. Having won the UEFA Conference League in 2022, they followed up with a Europa League final appearance in 2023 and a semi-final run last season. However, they only secured their place in this year's knockout rounds on the final matchday, edging out Eintracht Frankfurt with a 2-0 win.

Under Claudio Ranieri's leadership, Roma can set up an electrifying last-16 clash with Lazio. Since taking charge midseason, the veteran coach has sparked a dramatic turnaround. Roma are unbeaten in nine Serie A matches, and Sunday's 1-0 victory over Parma extended their league-best tally of 21 points from the last nine games.

The Giallorossi can take confidence from their dominant home form ahead of this crucial European encounter. They have won 13 of their last 16 Europa League matches at the Olimpico, including each of their last three without conceding.

Porto, meanwhile, only narrowly avoided an early exit from the competition, securing their place in the playoffs with a tense 1-0 victory over Maccabi Tel Aviv on the final matchday.

New coach Martín Anselmi, who arrived from Cruz Azul, started his tenure with a win but has since struggled to turn the team's fortunes around.

Last week's 1-0 triumph over Farense ended a five-match winless streak in the league, marking the first time Porto had endured such a slump this century. Despite that much-needed victory, they remain third in the Primeira Liga standings, trailing Sporting Lisbon by six points and Benfica by four.

With their domestic cup campaigns over, Porto is now focusing on success in the Europa League.

Historically, they have had the upper hand against Roma, losing just one of their seven previous meetings—a 2-1 defeat in 2019 when they last played in the Italian capital.

Porto also boast a 100% success rate in previous knockout ties against Roma, eliminating them in the 1981-82 Cup Winners' Cup, the 2016-17 Champions League qualifiers, and most recently, the 2018-19 Champions League last 16.

However, their recent knockout record in European competition has been poor. Porto have won just five of their last 26 UEFA knockout matches, suffering 16 defeats—with only one of those victories coming away from home.

Roma x Porto Team News

Claudio Ranieri will be without two key players from the first leg, as Bryan Cristante and Alexis Saelemaekers are both suspended.

Gianluca Mancini, who was withdrawn at halftime in Sunday's win over Parma due to an ankle issue, is expected to be fit. At the same time, new signing Victor Nelsson could replace Çelik in defense.

However, Lucas Gourna-Douath and Anass Salah-Eddine were left out of Roma's UEFA squad list, and Devyne Rensch remains injured.

Up front, Artem Dovbyk and Paulo Dybala could return to the starting lineup, though Matías Soulé—who stepped in for Dybala at the weekend—scored the decisive goal with a well-taken free kick and may have staked his claim for a starting spot.

Porto remains without Marko Grujić and Martim Fernandes, who are sidelined due to injury.

The Portuguese side rested several first-team players for their win over Farense, and key figures such as Stephen Eustáquio, Tiago Djaló, Alan Varela, and Samu Aghehowa could return.

Although Aghehowa has failed to score in his last eight matches, he remains a key figure in Porto's attack, having netted five times in the Europa League this season.

Our Predictions

Roma to win @ 1.80 on Sky247.ng

With Claudio Ranieri's side in exceptional form, Roma appear well-placed to qualify for the last 16. Their impressive home record in Europe—combined with Porto's struggles away from Portugal—suggests the Giallorossi will get the job done in front of their fans.

While Porto has had the upper hand in previous encounters, their recent form is far from convincing. Roma's momentum under Ranieri could prove too decisive for the visitors to overcome.

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