Lazio vs Como Prediction: Can the Newcomers Upset La Aquila at the Olimpico?

Match Details:

• Competition: Serie A (Matchday 21)
• Date: Sunday, January 19, 2026
• Kick-off: 20:45 CET (19:45 GMT / 14:45 ET)
• Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
• TV Coverage: Paramount+ (USA) / DAZN (Italy)

Current Form Analysis

Lazio: Struggling for Consistency in Mid-Table

SS Lazio find themselves in an unexpectedly modest 8th position in the Serie A table with 28 points from 20 matches (7 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses). The Biancocelesti are experiencing one of their most frustrating campaigns in recent years, trapped in Serie A's congested mid-table rather than competing for European places.

Recent Results:

• Serie A: Hellas Verona 0-1 Lazio (January 11)
• Serie A: Lazio 0-0 Cremonese (January 8)
• Serie A: Lazio 0-2 Napoli (January 4)
• Serie A: Udinese 1-1 Lazio (December 30)
• Serie A: Lazio 2-1 Lecce (December 22)

Lazio's form has been maddeningly inconsistent. They've failed to win in four out of their last five league matches, managing just one victory against relegation-threatened Hellas Verona. The 0-2 home defeat to Napoli was particularly damaging, with the match ending in chaos featuring three red cards.

The goalless draw against Cremonese was their fourth game without defeat but extended a worrying trend - they've drawn seven matches this season, more than any team in Serie A's top half. This inability to convert draws into wins has been their Achilles heel.

Tactical Concerns:

• Defensive solidity remains strong (16 goals conceded - 3rd best in the league)
• Attacking output has been anemic (21 goals scored in 20 matches)
• Over-reliance on clean sheets to secure points
• Midfield creativity lacking without key players
• Home form has been unremarkable with only moderate advantage

Injury & Transfer Crisis: Lazio's squad has been decimated by absences:

• Taty Castellanos (transferred to West Ham) - Massive blow to attacking options
• Boulaye Dia (AFCON duty with Senegal)
• Fisayo Dele-Bashiru (AFCON duty with Nigeria)
• Gustav Isaksen (long-term injury)
• Patric (muscle injury - out 2+ weeks)
• Samuel Gigot (back injury - excluded from plans)
• Adam Marusic (suspended after red card vs Napoli)

The departure of Castellanos to West Ham for a reported fee leaves Lazio desperately short of attacking firepower. Manager Maurizio Sarri is reportedly targeting Bologna striker Jens Odgaard as a replacement, but the €3 million gap in valuations could prove problematic.

Additionally, winger Matteo Cancellieri is close to joining Brentford for €18 million, further depleting attacking options.

Como: The Surprise Package Exceeding Expectations

Como 1907 have been the revelation of Serie A this season. The promoted side currently sit in an impressive 6th position with 34 points from 19 matches (9 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses), defying all pre-season predictions and establishing themselves as genuine dark horses for European qualification.

Recent Results:

• Serie A: Como 1-1 AC Milan (January 15)
• Serie A: Como 1-1 Bologna (January 10)
• Coppa Italia: Pisa 0-3 Como (January 6)
• Serie A: Como 1-0 Udinese (January 3)
• Serie A: Lecce 0-3 Como (December 28)

Como are unbeaten in their last four league matches and have lost just three times all season. Their recent run includes three consecutive clean sheets before the draws against Bologna and Milan, showcasing their defensive organization under manager Cesc Fàbregas.

The 1-1 draw with AC Milan was particularly impressive, with Como dominating large periods and only conceding a late equalizer. Before that, they demolished Lecce 3-0 away and secured a gritty 1-0 victory over Udinese at home.

Why Como Have Succeeded:

• Home fortress: 19 points from 8 home games (5 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses)
• Defensive excellence: Just 13 goals conceded - joint-best in Serie A
• Young talent: Nico Paz (6 goals) has been sensational
• Tactical discipline: Fàbregas has implemented a robust 4-2-3-1 system
• Team chemistry: Excellent squad cohesion for a newly-promoted side
• Giuseppe Sinigaglia atmosphere: Intimidating home environment

Key Players in Form:

• Nico Paz (20) - The Real Madrid loanee has been a revelation with 6 league goals
• Nicolas Paz Martinez - Creating chances consistently (21 assists in Serie A)
• Patrick Cutrone - 6 goals, providing clinical finishing
• Marc-Oliver Kempf - Defensive rock at the heart of their backline
• Maximo Perrone - Controlling midfield with maturity beyond his years

Squad Status: Como have a relatively clean bill of health, with no major injury concerns reported. The squad is confident and riding high on their unexpected success.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical record between these sides is limited due to Como's extended absence from Serie A:

Overall Record (All Competitions):

• Total Meetings: 6 matches
• Lazio Wins: 3
• Como Wins: 1
• Draws: 2

Recent Encounters: The teams met earlier this season (August 24, 2025) at the Giuseppe Sinigaglia Stadium, with Como securing an impressive 1-1 draw at home. Lazio took the lead but Como showed resilience to earn a point on their return to the top flight.

Historically, these fixtures have been tight, tactical affairs with an average of 2.0 goals per game. Como's defensive organization has proven they can frustrate Lazio's attacking play.

Tactical Analysis

Lazio's Approach

Maurizio Sarri typically employs his preferred possession-based 4-3-3 system, but personnel shortages may force adaptations:

Expected Formation: 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1

• Ivan Provedel in goal
• Back four: Luca Pellegrini, Alessio Romagnoli, Mario Gila, Manuel Lazzari
• Midfield trio: Danilo Cataldi, Nicolo Rovella (recently returned), Matteo Guendouzi
• Attack: Mattia Zaccagni, Tijjani Noslin, possibly Loum Tchaouna

Game Plan:

• Control possession through patient build-up
• Exploit width with overlapping full-backs
• Press high to win possession in advanced areas
• Rely on set-pieces given attacking limitations
• Keep compact defensively to prevent counter-attacks

Without Castellanos, Lazio lack a natural goal-scorer. Tijjani Noslin has been deployed as a false nine but lacks the physical presence and clinical finishing of his predecessor. This could force Sarri into more conservative tactics, prioritizing clean sheets over attacking ambition.

Como's Strategy

Cesc Fàbregas has Como playing organized, disciplined football that maximizes their strengths:

Expected Formation: 4-2-3-1

• Jean Butez in goal
• Defensive line: Ivan Smolčić, Marc-Oliver Kempf, Jacobo Ramón, Álex Valle
• Double pivot: Maximo Perrone, Lucas Da Cunha
• Attacking midfield: Mergim Vojvoda, Nico Paz, Jesus Rodriguez
• Striker: Anastasios Douvikas or Patrick Cutrone

Tactical Priorities:

• Compact defensive block in own half
• Quick transitions through Paz's creativity
• Exploit space behind Lazio's high defensive line
• Set-pieces as attacking weapons
• Maintain defensive discipline first and foremost
• Counter-attack with pace when opportunities arise

Como will look to replicate the approach that earned them a draw earlier in the season. They'll sit deep, stay organized, and look to hit Lazio on the break through Paz's vision and Cutrone's pace.

Key Battles

Nico Paz vs Lazio's Midfield The 20-year-old Real Madrid loanee has been Como's standout performer. His movement between the lines, creative passing, and eye for goal make him dangerous. Lazio's midfield must nullify his influence or risk being carved open.

Tijjani Noslin vs Como's Defense Without Castellanos, Noslin carries Lazio's attacking burden. The Dutch forward must find ways to create space against Como's well-drilled backline, which has conceded just 13 goals all season.

Set-Pieces: A Decisive Factor Both teams have struggled to create many clear chances in open play recently. Set-pieces could prove crucial, with Lazio's aerial threat from Romagnoli and Gila against Como's organized defensive structure.

Midfield Control: Cataldi vs Perrone The battle for midfield supremacy between Lazio's experienced regista and Como's rising star will dictate the game's tempo and flow.

Statistical Insights

Lazio:

• Average 1.05 goals scored per game (17th in Serie A)
• 0.80 goals conceded per game (3rd best in league)
• 51% average possession
• Drawn 35% of matches (highest in top 10)
• Home record: 4-4-2 (moderate home advantage)

Como:

• Average 1.42 goals scored per game
• 0.68 goals conceded per game (joint-best in Serie A)
• Unbeaten in all home matches this season
• Away record: 4-4-1 (impressive for promoted side)
• 34 points after 19 games (promotion season target exceeded)

Transfer Window Impact

Lazio: The loss of Castellanos to West Ham has left a gaping hole in attack. Without an adequate replacement secured before this match, Lazio will be severely handicapped offensively. Negotiations for Jens Odgaard continue, but time is running out.

The potential departure of Cancellieri to Brentford would further weaken attacking depth, though the €18 million fee could fund reinforcements.

Como: Como are reportedly interested in 18-year-old midfielder Adrian Lahdo from Hammarby, demonstrating their ambition to build for the future. However, they're unlikely to make significant changes to a formula that's working spectacularly.

The club's priority is maintaining squad harmony and avoiding disruption to their remarkable campaign.

Betting Predictions & Analysis

Based on comprehensive form analysis, tactical considerations, and statistical data:

Match Result Prediction: Draw

Confidence Level: High (65%)

This fixture has all the hallmarks of a stalemate. Lazio's attacking impotence without Castellanos combined with Como's defensive excellence suggests goals will be scarce. Como's away record (4-4-1) demonstrates their ability to grind out results on the road.

Predicted Score: Lazio 1-1 Como

Alternative Betting Markets:

Under 2.5 Goals: YES (Very High Confidence)

• Lazio averaging just 1.05 goals per game
• Como allowing just 0.68 goals per game
• Both teams' recent matches have been low-scoring
• Tactical conservatism from both managers expected
• Last 10 Lazio games have featured under 2.5 goals

Both Teams to Score: NO (Moderate Confidence)

• Como have kept clean sheets in 7 of last 10 matches
• Lazio's attacking struggles without Castellanos
• Both teams prioritize defensive organization
• One team failing to score is likely

Draw: Strong Value Bet

• Odds typically around +180/+200
• Historical trend of tight matches between these teams
• Como's defensive resilience makes them hard to beat
• Lazio's inability to convert draws into wins (7 draws in 20 games)

Nico Paz to Score: Moderate Value

• Como's most potent attacking threat
• Has scored against top opposition (Lazio, Juventus)
• Takes 29+ shots in 8 games vs top-half teams
• Looks underpriced given his form

Correct Score 0-0 or 1-1: Strong value

• Reflects both teams' defensive strengths
• Lazio's scoring struggles evident
• Como content with away points

Asian Handicap Como +0.5: Excellent value

• Como won't lose easily
• Defensive organization limits Lazio's threat
• Draw or Como win both covered

Match Dynamics & Intangibles

Pressure Dynamics: Lazio face mounting pressure from fans and media disappointed by their mid-table mediocrity. Every dropped point feels like a crisis. Como, conversely, are playing with house money - any point at the Olimpico would be celebrated as another milestone in their remarkable season.

Tactical Chess Match: This will be a fascinating battle between Sarri's possession philosophy and Fàbregas's pragmatic approach. Both coaches are highly intelligent tacticians who will look to exploit the other's weaknesses.

Atmosphere: While the Stadio Olimpico won't be sold out, the Lazio faithful will create an intimidating atmosphere. However, Como have shown they're not fazed by hostile environments, earning impressive results on the road throughout the campaign.

Motivation Levels: Como are riding high on confidence and belief. They're enjoying their Serie A adventure and playing without fear. Lazio, meanwhile, are searching for answers and struggling with low confidence after recent setbacks.

The X-Factor: Lazio's Attacking Crisis

Everything points to Lazio's inability to score goals being the defining factor. Without Castellanos, Dia, and with Isaksen injured, they're desperately short of firepower. Tijjani Noslin has tried admirably but isn't a natural striker and has managed just limited goals this season.

Como's defense, which has conceded only 13 goals in 19 matches (joint-best in Serie A), will relish facing a toothless Lazio attack. Marc-Oliver Kempf and Jacobo Ramón have formed an excellent partnership at center-back, while Perrone provides excellent defensive cover from midfield.

If Lazio can't find a way to break down Como's organization, they'll struggle to secure three points. A draw feels like the most likely outcome, continuing Lazio's frustrating pattern of sharing points rather than winning them.

Final Verdict

This match pits a frustrated, misfiring Lazio against a confident, overachieving Como side. On paper, Lazio should win comfortably at home. In reality, their attacking deficiencies and Como's defensive excellence suggest otherwise.

Como have nothing to lose and everything to gain. They've already proven they can compete with Italy's elite, drawing with AC Milan and taking points from other established clubs. Their organization, discipline, and belief make them incredibly difficult to beat.

Lazio's seven draws in 20 matches tell a story of a team that can't find that decisive edge. Without Castellanos, that problem intensifies. Expect Sarri's side to dominate possession and territory but struggle to create clear-cut chances against Como's compact defensive structure.

The smart money is on another frustrating afternoon for Lazio fans. Como will defend resolutely, absorb pressure, and potentially snatch a goal on the counter-attack through Paz's brilliance or a set-piece opportunity.

This fixture has all the ingredients for a tactical stalemate - two defensively solid teams, limited attacking quality from one side, and a premium on not losing rather than winning. A low-scoring draw appears the most probable outcome.

Our Prediction: Lazio 1-1 Como

Como will extend their unbeaten run and continue their remarkable Serie A campaign, while Lazio's wait for consistency continues. Both teams will walk away relatively satisfied - Como with another valuable away point, Lazio avoiding defeat but still searching for the attacking spark that could transform draws into victories.

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